Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Abu Azaitar Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-192 / +150)|
|Venue||UFC APEX, Las Vegas|
|Time||Approx. 9 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet.|
The first bout on the UFC 260 card features one middleweight looking to get his first official victory in his fifth fight and another fighter looking to start his UFC career with back-to-back wins. Marc-Andre Barriault, winless under the promotion, will face Abu Azaitar to open Saturday night’s action.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s opening fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
|Record||11-4-0 (1 NC)||14-2-1|
|Avg. Fight Time||13:43||15:00|
|Weight (pounds)||185 lbs.||185 lbs.|
|Date of birth||2/18/90||3/10/86|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||4.25||3.20|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||4.12||1.27|
|Take Down Avg||.55||1.00|
Both Azaitar and Barriault are returning from doping suspensions, but this will also be Azaitar’s first bout in 979 days (32 months), and I rarely side with a fighter at this level who has been inactive for such an extended period of time.
Barriault has been competitive against tough competition in his four UFC fights, but still hasn’t recorded an official win despite knocking out Oskar Piechota last June (overturned to a No Contest).
🇨🇦 CANADA STAND UP!@PowerBarriault makes it back-to-back finishes for fighters from up north.
— UFC (@ufc) June 20, 2020
Unless Azaitar has made significant improvements in the gym over the past two years, Barriault should be the cleaner and more powerful striker.
Azaitar will oblige him in a brawl, but Barriault is seemingly the more durable man if both are intent on finishing, and he should win on volume too.
Barriault vs. Azaitar Pick
Short of Azaitar catching a finish on the feet, he may need to rely on his wrestling in order to win this fight with control time.
While takedown defense (69%) was somewhat of an issue for Barriault in his first three UFC bouts (all losses), Azaitar is also a lesser wrestler than any of those opponents.
Ultimately, I don’t see any projected betting value on this fight.
My read is Barriault inside the distance (projected +320, listed +300), but there are too many unknowns with regard to the current durability and physique of two fighters coming off of USADA suspensions.
The Pick: No Bet