UFC 258 Co-Main Event Odds, Pick & Prediction: Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso (Saturday, Feb. 13)

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Maycee Barber.

Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso Odds

Barber odds +105
Grasso odds -127
Over/Under 2.5 (-250 / +180)
Venue UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Time Approx. 11:30 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN PPV

The No. 10-ranked women’s flyweight contender, Maycee Barber, makes her return to the octagon after more than a year off to face No. 15-ranked challenger, Alexa Grasso, in the UFC 258 co-main event Saturday.

Barber hopes to return to her form prior to the injury where she reeled off four straight wins by finish to start her UFC career. On the other side, Grasso has a chance to string together a win streak for the first time in her UFC career — she’s 4-3 and coming off a win vs. Ji Yeon Kim in August.  Is this a bounceback spot for the former UFC rising star?

Below I break preview the matchup and odds for what should be an exciting co-main event. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Barber Grasso
Record 8-1 12-3
Avg. Fight Time 9:28 13:15
Height 5’5″ 5’5″
Weight (pounds) 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach (inches) 65″ 66″
Stance Switch Orthodox
Date of birth 5/18/98 8/9/93
Sig Strikes Per Min 6.02 5.35
SS Accuracy 60% 42%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.15 3.76
SS Defense 49% 63%
Take Down Avg 0.95 0.32
TD Acc 30% 40%
TD Def 80% 63%
Submission Avg 0.3 0.5

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Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso Betting Pick

Barber suffered a torn ACL in the first round of her decision loss to Roxanne Modafferi last January and recorded her first professional defeat.

She returns for what amounts to an intriguing, striking matchup against Alexa Grasso, who has only lost to superior grapplers in her career to date.

The striking metrics (60% accuracy, 49% defense for Barber; 42% accuracy, 63% defense for Grasso) speak to their respective styles. Barber is an incredibly aggressive power puncher (6.02 strikes landed per minute) who has the physical tools to be a major problem at flyweight, while Grasso is much more measured, and responsible defensively.

I expect these two fighters’ output to be relatively close, but Barber should have a significant power edge, and I think that ultimately gets her the nod from the judges.

I have Barber projected at 53% and would bet her moneyline down to even money (+100) at a three percent edge.

Furthermore, I see value on Barber’s decision prop down to +285 at a similar edge. Coming off of that knee injury, I’ll keep the stakes here relatively small.

The Pick: Maycee Barber ML (+105) | Maycee Barber Wins by Decision (+350)

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