Twins vs. Yankees Odds
|Time||2:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Twins come to the Bronx for a Monday afternoon make-up game. The Yankees had won the first three of a four-game home series entering the August 22 postponement, probably saving Minnesota some grief.
However, the Twins shouldn’t be excited heading into this game. The Twins are just 1-15 in their last 16 trips to Yankee Stadium, and they have regression machine John Gant on the mound.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are in desperation mode. Dropping two of three in the Subway Series directly after getting swept by the Blue Jays is a bad look. The Yankees now sit one game back of Boston and Toronto for a wild-card spot.
So are the Yankees a sure-fire bet in this one? Let’s dig in and find our best angle for Monday afternoon’s contest.
The Twins are a lousy team, but the pitching is particularly horrendous. Which is why they must turn to John Gant today.
Gant is the biggest mystery in MLB. Despite walking nearly six batters per nine innings and posting a WHIP above 1.50, Gant has managed to hold his ERA below four. Meanwhile, he’s posted a 5.11 xERA and a 4.97 xFIP.
Gant has been begging for regression this entire season, but as he continues to load the base paths, he continues to strand runners (75.1% left on base). In his most recent outing, Gant allowed three hits and walked four over five innings, but he also allowed zero runs and earned the win.
The Twins should be happy to have Byron Buxton back, and he’s starting to heat up again. Over the past week, Buxton has posted a .915 OPS and a 142 wRC+.
Overall, the Twins’ offense ranks in the back-half of the league in OPS (.718), wOBA (.310) and wRC+ (96) over the past month. They just lost a series to the Royals, and have posted just a 9-11 record over their last 20.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are 2-8 over their last 10 games, and are asking rookie Luis Gil to be the stopper today.
While that sounds like a bad idea, it might be smarter than you think. He’s posted a 1.42 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over his first four starts, and even posted 15 2/3 scoreless frames to begin his MLB career.
However, lady luck has been on his side. Gil’s opponents have posted just a .227 BABIP, and he’s managed to strand 87.5% of his runners while walking 14 batters over his 19 total MLB innings.
He’s paired his numbers with a 2.77 xERA and a 5.19 xFIP. I’d expect some amount of regression from Gil in the future, but the Yankees should be pleased with his rookie season.
The Yankees should be much more worried about their bullpen. Once the best in baseball, the Yankees relievers have posted a 4.68 FIP and a 1.34 WHIP over the past month, both stats that rank in the bottom 10 in MLB. Guys like Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green have struggled mightily in this recent stretch, and it’s hurt the Yankees’ playoff hopes.
The lineup has hit well, but Aaron Judge is listed as questionable on the injury report with an illness. I would monitor that before game time.
While both starting pitchers have out-performed their metrics, I’m going to trust their expected stats and take the over.
The Twins’ lineup is much more dangerous with Buxton in it, and Jorge Polanco has been on a tear recently. Gil is going to throw a fastball-slider combination, two pitches that Minnesota has done relatively well with.
Meanwhile, Judge’s status worries me. But the Yankees put up four runs on Gant back on August 19, and I think the lineup should be able to do it again.
The wind will be blowing 12 mph straight out to the short porch this afternoon, and the Twins and the Yankees are 6-0 to the over when they’ve played in 2021. So, give me the over 10 at -120 or better.
Pick: Over 10 (-115 | Play to -120)
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