Trey Lance NFL Draft Odds
|To Be Pick||Odds|
|Odds via BetMGM and as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday.|
The conversation around the No. 3 overall pick has been centered around Alabama’s Mac Jones, but Trey Lance is making a late comeback on draft day.
Lance’s odds to be the No. 3 pick were steamed early Thursday afternoon after rumors leaked that Jones was not the quarterback the San Francisco 49ers are targeting, moving him from the +300 range late Wednesday all the way to as high as -200 at FanDuel as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Lance had dropped all the way to +500 odds (16.67% implied probability) earlier in this cycle after a lukewarm throwing session at North Dakota State’s Pro Day. Then he passed Justin Fields amid reports that the 49ers’ decision would come down to either Jones or Lance, though Jones quickly moved to minus odds. Now, however, Jones is plus money.
Lance’s draft position over/under sat at 6.5 on BetMGM as of early Thursday with the under juiced to -190 (over +150), but is now off the board there and other sportsbooks, likely in light of its recent volatility.
Odds To Draft Trey Lance
|Team||Odds||Round 1 Pick(s)|
|Above odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday and via DraftKings.|
Editor’s note: These odds are now off the board.
The 49ers have the shortest odds to land Lance at No. 3 overall at +150 (40%). His odds to land in San Francisco have increased drastically since Thursday morning.
The Panthers are a distant second to the 49ers with the second-shortest odds to draft Lance at +500 (16.67%). Carolina has made two high-profile quarterback moves this offseason, namely trading for former Jets QB Sam Darnold and sending Teddy Bridgewater — whom they signed just one season ago to a three-year, $61 million deal — to the Broncos.
Some viewed the move as a signal the Panthers would in fact be pursuing a quarterback with the No. 8 pick, though it’s worth mentioning they have also been rumored to be interested in trading back in the draft.
Tied for the third-shortest odds to land Lance are the Broncos and Patriots at +600 (14.29%). Denver just acquired Bridgewater this week to back up 2019 second-rounder Drew Lock, but neither Lock nor Bridgewater are franchise quarterback material. They pick ninth in this year’s draft, meaning it’s still possible — albeit unlikely — they could land Lance without trading up.
The Patriots would likely have to broker a trade to land Lance, as it’s unlikely the North Dakota State gunslinger will fall to them at 15. The notion of trading up in the draft would normally be an anathema to head coach and de facto general manager Bill Belichick, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility given their current QB situation. New England somewhat surprisingly re-signed Cam Newton this offseason after a disappointing 2020, who could represent a one-year stopgap while they develop a young talent from this year’s draft class.
Next up are the Falcons and Lions at +700 (12.5%), the Washington Football Team at +800 (11.11%) and the Bears at +900 (10%). The Falcons — who have the highest pick of the group at No. 4 overall — presently have the best signal-caller situation of the four aforementioned teams. Quarterback Matt Ryan is under contract until 2023 and carries a massive $65.44 million dead cap hit in 2021, though the team may be trending towards a full rebuild.
The Lions pick seventh of this group and have a moderately good quarterback situation after trading for Jared Goff. Washington and the Bears do not have long-term answers at QB, but pick much later in the draft at 19 and 20, respectively.