Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United standout Paul Pogba.
Manchester United vs. Roma Odds
| Manchester United Odds | -190 |
| Roma Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +325 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds updated Wednesday via PointsBet | |
Roma looks to salvage its season in the Europa League semifinal round, but it faces a daunting task when it takes on Manchester United in the first leg.
The Red Devils, currently second in the Premier League, are playing well at the moment. Not many teams in Europe can match their talent when fully fit. Roma will look to pressure them and get an advantage with an away goal or two at Old Trafford.
Let’s break down what kind of game we should expect.
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Manchester United
The Red Devils enter this game with a massive advantage in form. (We’ll get to Roma’s struggles in a bit.)
Manchester United has lost just once since the start of February, with that defeat coming in a FA Cup quarterfinal match with Leicester City. After that game on March 21, the club had won five in a row before a scoreless draw against Leeds United this past weekend.
This season, Manchester United can beat anyone when fit. Paul Pogba changes its midfield, adding another playmaker alongside Bruno Fernandes. When Pogba is on, the Red Devils are a different team.
The one position where Manchester United might feel let down by this season is at striker, where Anthony Martial has struggled and Mason Greenwood is not best-equipped for the role. Edinson Cavani has been the best answer up top, with Greenwood and Marcus Rashford out wide. It’s going to be tough for the Red Devils to falter with a fully fit front four, though.
Roma
Domestically, Roma is poised to finish behind the rest of Serie A’s big clubs in seventh place. The Yellow and Reds are six points behind city rivals Lazio, which has a game in hand.
This matchup could not come at a worse time for Roma either. Its form has been downright awful over its last eight games, of which it has won just two contests. Roma is winless in its last four fixtures, which includes defeats to Torino and Cagliari in Serie A play.
In the quarterfinals, Roma was very fortunate Ajax didn’t bring its shooting boots to the first leg. The Dutch giant won the expected-goals battle by a 3.3-0.5 margin, but suffered a 2-1 defeat. A 1-1 draw in Rome in the second leg was enough for Roma to advance.
The Yellow and Reds line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation under manager Paulo Fonseca, with Lorenzo Pellegrini and Henrik Mkhitaryan supporting veteran goal-scorer Edin Dzeko. The big issues come on defense, having allowed three goals in both of those aforementioned Serie A defeats.
Betting Analysis & Pick
There are so many things going against Roma entering this game. It has allowed more than 2.5 xGA in four of its last seven games, including matchups with Sassuolo and Torino. So, it’s not like Roma is giving chances away to Italian powerhouses.
What Roma does is create opportunities. It consistently goes over 2.5 goals in its matches, and will be going full throttle to get what would be a big away goal at Old Trafford.
With Fonseca’s side pushing the tempo and Manchester United in better form, I see the over getting hit here.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-130)
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