Arsenal vs. Leeds Odds
|Day | Time||Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET|
Clubs looking to make respective charges up the Premier League table battle Sunday when Arsenal welcomes Leeds United to Emirates Stadium.
This showdown has the makings of being the most intriguing fixture on the weekend card in England’s top flight, with these sides separated by just a point on the table.
The Gunners are hoping to halt a three-match winless streak, which includes back-to-back defeats, in this affair. Arsenal, which lost to Wolves (2-1) and Aston Villa (1-0) in its most recent games, sits in 11th place with 31 points.
On the other side, the Peacocks continued their ascension in the standings with their 2-0 shutout victory over Crystal Palace last time out at Elland Road. The win gave Leeds its third triumph in its last four league affairs, putting it in 10th place on 32 points.
The Gunners seemed to have things rolling along following a stretch where they went unbeaten in eight of nine games across all competitions.
Yet, that fine run of form went away following a scoreless home draw against Manchester United. Those aforementioned poor efforts against Wolves and Aston Villa ensued, knocking Arsenal out of the top half of the table.
Alexandre Lacazette and the Gunners will now try to pick up the pieces in this confrontation, knowing a win would push them past Leeds in the standings.
Statistically, Arsenal continues to be one of the league’s more impressive outfits despite its place in the standings. The Gunners sit on a respectable 30.4 expected goals and 27.2 expected goals against, resulting in a solid +3.2 xGDiff and +0.14 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Manager Marcelo Bielsa has to be pleased with the Peacocks’ last set of results, especially when it comes to their improved defensive efforts. Leeds has conceded five goals in its last five outings, which is far better for an outfit that gave up six goals in a Dec. 20 blowout defeat against Manchester City.
The Peacocks are getting production all over the pitch, highlighted by a strong attack led by Patrick Bamford and Jack Harrison. Bamford has a team-best 12 goals and could realistically finish second in league’s scoring race.
However, the one thing working against Leeds is the fact it can’t seem to snatch a big win against the league powerhouses. The Peacocks have just one victory against a top-six outfit, which came via a 3-1 victory over Leicester City two weeks back at King Power Stadium.
When comparing numbers with Arsenal, Leeds’ overall figures trail its host. The Peacocks boast an impressive 36.0 expected goals, but sit on a brutal 38.3 expected goals against that result in a subpar -2.3 xGDiff and -0.14 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Leeds’ xGA is second worst in the league, only trailing West Bromwich Albion (42.0 xGA) among 20 teams.
Betting Analysis & Picks
On paper, this is a pretty even meeting between sides hoping to make respective charges up the table. And as much as I love my seat on the Leeds bandwagon, I’m going to have to hop off it in this spot.
That said, I am backing Arsenal to snap its skid and bag all three points. Despite their recent run of form, the Gunners are simply better from top to bottom and should be able to handle the Peacocks.
Arsenal, which is unbeaten in its last eight meetings with Leeds, hasn’t lost in its last five league home affairs. Add those key angles with the fact the Gunners have kept a clean sheet in their last three league tilts at the Emirates, and I like my chances on this wager.
I will also play the total to stay under the alternative number of 3.25 goals. There have been three goals of less in eight of their last 10 league games combined, plus there have been two goals or less the last three times Arsenal and Leeds have squared, off so I am forecasting a low-scoring meeting.
Picks: Arsenal ML (-115) | Total Under 3.25 Goals (-150)