Serie A Odds, Picks, Prediction: AC Milan vs. Lazio Betting Preview (Sept. 12)

Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Olivier Giroud and Stefano Pioli.

AC Milan vs. Lazio Odds

AC Milan Odds +120
Lazio Odds +230
Draw +260
Over/Under 3 (+105 / -125)
Day | Time Sunday | 12 p.m. ET
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Two of the top teams in Italy square off on Sunday as Lazio travel to the San Siro to battle AC Milan.

AC Milan are off to a perfect start, winning their first two matches and building off their second-place finish a season ago. This will be their first big test of the season, while also having one eye on their Champions League encounter on Wednesday against Liverpool.

Lazio are atop the Serie A standings after two matches, but they are in for a test on Sunday. Lazio finished in sixth in the Serie A standings last season and will be looking to take another step back towards the top four under new manager Maurizio Sarri.

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AC Milan Hope to Keep Form With Returning Roster

AC Milan had an incredible resurgence last season, finishing second in Serie A and putting up a +26.21 xGDiff. They’ve kept pretty much their exact same squad for the 2021-22 campaign as well.

The Rossoneri looked fantastic through their first two games, beating Sampdoria on the road and thrashing Cagliari in a 4-1 home win before the international break. Where AC Milan really struggled last season was at home against the top five teams in Italy, losing all four by a combined score of 10-1. However, they dominated the rest of Serie A at the San Siro, going 9-6-1 with a +16.32 xGDiff overall.

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Lazio Haven’t Played Top Serie A Competition

Sure, Lazio finished just outside the top four last season, but they only accumulated 57.68 xP, which was far below their actual point total of 68. They’re also going through a transition period, with long-time manager Simone Inzaghi leaving for Inter Milan.

Maurizio Sarri is back with the club and hasn’t lasted more than one season at his last two stops of Chelsea and Juventus. For years, Lazio played a 3-5-2 formation under Filippo Inzaghi, and now Sarri has them playing out of a 4-3-3 setup.

Also, Lazio were dreadful on the road last season, picking up 26 of a possible 57 points with a -0.79 xGDiff. Sure, they’ve beaten two bottom-of-the-table sides in Empoli and Spezia in their first two matches by a combined 9-2 score line, but AC Milan will be a massive step up in competition.

Betting Analysis & Pick

With AC Milan being at home and Lazio having not faced any stiff competition yet, I think Rossoneri has some value.

I have AC Milan projected at +104, so I think there’s little bit of value on them +120 at DraftKings or better.

Pick: AC Milan +120


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