Burnley vs. West Brom Odds
|West Brom Odds||+290|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
Clubs tucked in the bottom half of the Premier League table go at it Saturday when Burnley welcomes West Bromwich Albion to Turf Moor.
The Clarets, once destined for a relegation scrap all the way to Decision Day, are unbeaten in three consecutive league affairs and have fled the bottom trio for 15th place in England’s top flight. Burnley settled for a midweek stalemate with Fulham, pushing it to 27 points on the season.
In contrast, the Baggies have been in a world of hurt and things don’t seem to be getting better. West Brom did scratch out a draw with Manchester United in its most recent game, but it’s winless in its last six games and sitting in 19th place on just 13 points.
Let’s take a look at this showdown and see what could be in store.
Manager Sean Dyche continues to pull all the right strings with the Clarets, who once seemed headed for a season-long battle in the drop zone.
However, life at Turf Moor has been going much better for Dyche and his lads as of late. Sure, that aforementioned draw against lowly Fulham wasn’t fantastic, but it was still a much-needed point coming during a very crowded set of fixtures.
Burnley has really kicked it up a notch in the xG battle in recent games, holding sizable advantages over its last three foes — Brighton & Hove Albion, Crystal Palace and Fulham — in the category. Most recently, the Clarets held a 1.4-0.5 edge in the tie with the Cottagers.
Statistically, Burnley continues to be one of the league’s worst when it comes to the advanced numbers. The Clarets sit on a poor 21.6 expected goals (xG) and disappointing 34.4 expected goals against, generating a -12.8 xGDiff and -0.53 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Life could not be going any worse for the Baggies overall. Sure, they snagged that point against Manchester United. However, ties just aren’t going to get it done when you’re sitting 12 points from safety at this point in the campaign.
The Baggies have only two wins and seven draws in 24 fixtures thus far, so anything less than a victory should be considered a loss moving forward.
When comparing numbers with Burnley, West Brom’s overall figures are not just worse. They’re last in the entire league. The Baggies sit on paltry 16.6 expected goals and horrific 42.4 expected goals against, resulting in a ghastly -25.8 xGDiff and -1.07 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Bottom line, West Brom is in deep trouble with a fading light at the end of the league tunnel. And I really don’t see a way this ends well for the Baggies.
Betting Analysis & Picks
As I have said many times, don’t overthink things when it comes to the obvious. You’re only fooling yourself when you go that route.
In this case, you have one team continuing its move up the table and another pretty much destined for a trip down to the Championship.
That said, I am backing Burnley to keep the train rolling along and bag all three points in this spot. The Clarets are simply the better team at this stage of the season, and I can’t see them squandering points against the Baggies after working so hard to get into safety.
I will also play the total to stay under the number as well. There have been two goals or less in nine of Burnley’s last 11 games, so I will back that trend continuing in this contest.
Picks: Burnley ML (+104) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-148)