Brighton vs. Aston Villa Odds
|Aston Villa Odds||+145|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
Things could get interesting in Premier League action Saturday when revitalized Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Aston Villa in a crucial showdown.
The Seagulls have finally gotten things going this season, ditching their terrible run for a five-match unbeaten streak that has jettisoned them from any relegation chatter. Yes, Brighton suffered a midweek 1-0 loss to Leicester City in FA Cup action, but that’s just a minor blip in the big picture.
What the southern coast outfit has done in league play is all that should matter. The Seagulls have snagged 11 of a possible 15 points in their last five league tilts, pushing 10 points clear of the drop zone and into 15th place.
As for Aston Villa, the visitor has perched itself in the top half of the table after its clutch, 1-0 shutout win over Arsenal last time out. The Villans sit in ninth place on 35 points, putting them just five points behind fourth-place Liverpool.
In the immortal words of the late Jerry Garcia, what a long, strange trip it’s been for the Seagulls this season in England’s top flight.
Brighton seemed to be headed toward a relegation fight all the way to Decision Day before stunning, back-to-back 1-0 victories over Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool completely changed its destiny.
Now, the Seagulls are out of trouble and can focus of getting results that actually coincide with their stellar advanced metrics.
Statistically, Brighton continues to be one of the league’s more impressive outfits despite its place in the standings. The Seagulls sit on a respectable 30.7 expected goals and 25.3 expected goals against, resulting in a solid +5.2 xGDiff and +0.23 xGDiff/90 minutes.
I haven’t rated Aston Villa much of the season, largely due to its lack of consistency. Sure, that was a huge win over Arsenal last time out at Villa Park, thanks to Ollie Watkins’ second-minute goal. Unfortunately, that was the same team that blew a lead twice in a Jan. 27 loss to 17th-place Burnley at Turf Moor.
Bottom line, the Villans must put together more than one solid performance if it plans on finishing top 10 in the league standings.
When comparing numbers with Brighton, Aston Villa’s overall numbers are slightly better than its host. The Villans is on 34.3 expected goals and paltry 27.1 expected goals against that result in a decent +7.2 xGDiff and +0.34 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Suffice it to say that if you’re going on figures alone, these are very evenly matched sides both on and off the field.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This fixture really has the makings of being one of the week’s better matches.
There hasn’t been a team I have supported more this season than the Seagulls (well, maybe Leeds), and I have a hard time thinking they won’t get a result against an opponent that’s 3-5 in its last eight games.
That said, I am backing Brighton to keep this train rolling against Aston Villa and will play it via a Draw No Bet wager at plus odds. The Seagulls are simply the better side at the moment, so I expect them to make it six consecutive league outings without a defeat.
I will also play the total to stay under the number in this spot. There have been two goals or less in Brighton’s last six league affairs and eight of its last nine overall, which I see continuing in what should be tight contest.
Picks: Brighton — Draw No Bet (+108) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (+105)