RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich Odds
|RB Leipzig Odds||+180|
|Bayern Munich Odds||+140|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+148 / -182)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings.|
The top two teams in the Bundesliga face off on Saturday as Bayern Munich visit Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig.
Bayern have a four-point lead on Leipzig with eight matches to play in the Bundesliga season and will probably be content with a point here ahead of a Champions League clash with PSG on Wednesday.
If Leipzig want to win the league and end Bayern’s eight-year run as German champions, it begins with a win on Saturday at home.
Leipzig’s defense is one of the best in all of Europe, and that defense is why Julian Nagelsmann’s side is competing for a Bundesliga title even while the attack is not as explosive since losing Timo Werner. No Leipzig player has scored more than six goals this year, although six have scored at least four times.
Most of their chance creation comes through three players: Christopher Nkunku and Dani Olmo through the middle and Angelino on the left wing. Angelino will not play on Saturday due to injury, while midfielder Konrad Laimer is out as well.
My numbers actually show that Leipzig were the best team in Germany for a brief period while they completely smothered lesser opposition in the Bundesliga and Bayern kept conceding too many chances and goals each week. Leipzig have conceded six fewer expected goals than every other team in the Bundesliga, and no other squad in Europe’s top five league has allowed fewer goals than Leipzig.
And there’s nothing flukey about this defensive run. By shots allowed, key passes allowed, crosses into the penalty area and goalkeeping, Leipzig is both good and not running unsustainably hot.
Robert Lewandowski’s injury during the international break couldn’t have come at a worse time for Bayern. Their two biggest fixtures of the season to date are this week, and Bayern had finally improved its recent Bundesliga form entering this match.
Bayern dominated Lazio over two legs in the Champions League Round of 16, crushed Borussia Dortmund, beat Werder Bremen easily and scored four first half goals against Stuttgart while down to 10 men. Their underlying numbers were improving since a pretty bad run of performances (relatively) throughout the winter.
Manager Hansi Flick has plenty of attacking options he can turn to in lieu of Lewandoswki, who is not the only player missing for the Bavarians. Center back Jerome Boateng and left back Alphonso Davies are both out suspended for this match, which forces a different approach from Bayern’s backline.
Those absences likely mean a return to the side for Benjamin Pavard at right back with Niklas Sule and David Alaba in the middle. Instead of the more attacking Davies at left back, Flick likely will turn to Lucas Hernandez. That’s essentially four center backs across the backline.
Bayern’s defense has shown some improvement in recent weeks, holding three of their last four Bundesliga opponents under 1.00 expected goal. It’s too soon to say whether this is statistically significant, but the improvements can’t be ignored.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When this line opened pre-Lewandowski injury, I showed value on Leipzig. But the line has since moved and I can’t recommend a play on either side at the current number.
When these two teams met in the first half of the season, Bayern was held to a season low in shots. In total, there were six goals from 16 total shots and 2.7 expected goals, including multiple goals from outside the penalty area.
Given the stakes of this game, and the injuries to key attacking players in Lewandowski and Angelino, I’m holding my nose and taking the under here. I project 2.88 goals with both attacks at full strength and I’m not sure the Bayern attack will create enough good chances or finish at the absurd rate Lewandowski has been this season.
It’s also worth noting that a point is good enough for Bayern, so a potential 1-1 score in the second half might be enough for them to try to see out the draw. The recent defensive improvements and better backline without Boateng should keep Leipzig from creating many big chances.
Pick: Under 3 (-114)