Padres vs. Mets Odds
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings.|
The Mets and Padres face off for the second time in a week as the location shifts to New York. The two teams split a four-game series last weekend, but we’re sure to have a winner this time with it being a three-game series.
New York will send ace Jacob deGrom to the mound for the opener, and Blake Snell will oppose him for the Padres. Ironically, both pitchers picked up shutout wins during the series in San Diego.
However, with deGrom as high as a -180 favorite in this matchup, I’ll share a way you can get involved in this game without paying an exorbitant amount of juice.
A Puncher’s Chance For the Padres Against deGrom
San Diego will get another crack against deGrom after he mowed it down for seven innings last week while allowing just three hits and striking out 11 batters.
It could benefit the Padres that it was only last Saturday when they faced the Mets ace, so the game should still be fairly fresh in their memory banks. That might be enough to provide some clues as to what adjustments they can try to make.
The harsh reality is that they’re facing the best pitcher in baseball who’s also in the running for the MVP award. This isn’t a secret to anyone, especially the bookmakers, who tend to inflate Mets odds in games involving deGrom.
As a result, I’ve found that it’s actually more profitable to look to fade deGrom instead of backing him in the long run.
San Diego’s lineup does have a puncher’s chance against him when you look at its overall numbers. In fact, the Mets split deGrom’s outings against the Padres in each of the three seasons he made two starts against them.
That trend could be active for tonight’s game.
And if we look at San Diego’s current lineup, it has 84 at-bats against deGrom with a .250/.300/.393 line, along with a .143 ISO. Those are fairly respectable numbers against a player who is widely considered the best pitcher in baseball.
Look for Padres catcher Victor Caratini to get the start behind home plate today. Caratini has two home runs in 12 at-bats against deGrom, in addition to a .483 wOBA.
Strong Numbers For Snell Against Mets
While the Padres try to contend with DeGrom, the Mets’ hitters will also face a quality pitcher in Snell.
However, things haven’t gone all that smoothly for the Washington native in his first season with the Padres. After going 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts for Tampa Bay last year, Snell is 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA through 12 starts for San Diego this season.
He could be close to turning things around, though, as his 3.95 FIP does point to some positive regression by almost a full run. And perhaps his last outing serves as an example for that upside, as Snell pitched seven shutout innings against the Mets on Friday.
It was the first time this season he pitched more than six innings. He’s actually averaged closer to 4 2/3 innings per start due to high pitch counts from walking too many batters.
Snell’s 5.33 BB/9 ratio is the highest of his six-year career in the majors and almost twice last year’s mark of 3.24 BB/9. But in that last start, he allowed just one walk, which was key for him to pitch deep into the game.
Snell has faced the Mets three times, and he’s 2-1 against them with a 1.35 ERA. Despite New York’s 30-24 record, it’s actually just 6-9 when facing a starting left-hander. In addition, the Mets own a .222/.306/.367 line against southpaws compared to a .241/.316/.385 line against right-handers.
A team can’t win baseball games without scoring runs, and these numbers show that New York might still face a stiff challenge in its own right against Snell on Friday night.
I’m rarely going to lay more than -150 with a favorite in a baseball game. Instead, I’d prefer to look for other ways to get my money in, whether it’s a run-line play, a total, or even a first-inning under.
I mentioned earlier that over the years, it’s more profitable to fade deGrom because oddsmakers are likely to place a heavy tax to back him.
Our BetLabs database shows that through deGrom’s career, the Mets are 102-89 (53.4%) in his starts but with a loss of 15.10 units. I’m also well aware that the Mets have been a bit better over the last two seasons, as they’re 14-7 (66.7%) in his starts.
This season, they’re 6-3 with him on the mound with four straight wins.
I’m not sure I want to step in front of that train, so I’ll look at the run line for the first half of the game instead.
deGrom is 97-94-1 (-13.64 units) on the run line in the first five innings.
With the Padres getting a half-run in this spot, our ticket would still cash if the game is tied going into the sixth inning.
I think there’s enough support to show that Snell could keep the Mets’ bats quiet early on long enough for us to get our desired result.
FanDuel has the best price with San Diego at +106 as of writing, so I’ll look to place my action there.
Pick: Padres First Five Run Line +0.5 (+106)