Red Wings vs. Predators Odds
|Red Wings Odds||+150|
|Day | Time||Saturday, 8 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.|
The “cut-copy-paste” function had to be a mindblower at one time. I’ve lived just long enough to know what a typewriter is and have seen one in the metaphorical flesh.
However, I’ve never had to use one, but you have to assume the generation that did had to have been bewildered when it started using computer software for its writing needs, and then shortly thereafter, the aforementioned function that came into the fold.
If it weren’t completely cheating, I’d just cut-copy-paste my preview from Thursday’s game between the Detroit Red Wings and Nashville Predators and place it right here. All the same elements from that story still apply.
Actually, let’s try it and see how it goes.
Detroit Red Wings
” … The Red Wings have an even-strength rating at just below average compared to the rest of their division. For example, they’ve converted 13 of 79 High-Danger Chances (HDCs), while their opponents have converted 12 of 77 HDCs. Their HDC conversion rate is 16.4%, which is actually above average. The trouble is the opponent’s 15.5% conversion rate is also above average.
“Detroit is losing the number of games that they are due to some special teams struggles. The opposition is converting 30% of their power play opportunities against the Red Wings, so the penalty kill is rough.
“Even rougher? The power play, which is clicking at just 9% so far this season.”
Well, after a 3-2 Predators win, we can tweak those numbers to 13 of 86 for the Red Wings and 13 of 85 for their opponents, as Nashville was the only team to convert a HDC.
The Predators were also the only team to record a power-play goal, converting one of four chances, while the Wings went scoreless in four tries.
” … Another good reason to not like the Predators — their goaltending. Juuse Saros took over the No. 1 role in the playoff bubble last summer, and didn’t run with it, as the Preds lost to the Coyotes in four games.
“Now to start the season, Saros has struggled, finding himself dangerously close to the Senators’ goaltending duo at the bottom of the Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) metrics at -5.39.
“In fact, he’s dangerously close to losing the job back to long-time Predators netminder, Pekka Rinne, who’s actually bounced back in shorter duty this season to have a slightly above average GSAA.”
Sure enough, the Predators surprised many by giving the start to the veteran Rinne and he was again very good. The veteran stopped 24 of 26 shots, stymieing the Red Wings on all seven of their HDCs at even strength.
Detroit didn’t get to take advantage of the struggling Saros, but the expectation here is that the presumptive No. 1 goalie will get his chance here.
Bottom line, look for Detroit have a little more luck in the offensive end.
Betting Analysis & Pick
” … Obviously, I let the cat out of the bag on this one early, but given all the information, there’s no reason not to back the Red Wings in Nashville in what is way closer to a coin flip than the prices indicate. And should they lose to the Preds in the first game, fire away again in Game 2.”
Well, here we are in second game. The first meeting was a virtual coin flip. Given everything we hoped the Red Wings would avoid (special-teams discrepancy and good goaltending from the Predators) actually happened, it’s a wonder how they were able to keep it tied at 2-2 deep into the third period.
One thing we couldn’t have predicted, but will take some solace in, is that we had a Zamboni-load of closing-line value on this game last time around.
That won’t pay for groceries next week, but anytime you can get a bet down at +175 and have it close below +150, you know you’ve done something right.
Unfortunately, the price for the rematch will look a lot more like the closing number than the opener, but I think if we can get the Red Wings at +150, we’ll happily take it.
Pick: Red Wings (+150 or better)