NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: The Plus-Money Play on Tim Hardaway Jr. (Wednesday, March 31)

We’re about one week past the NBA trade deadline now, which is just long enough for us to start to get a feel for how some of the new rosters are shaping up — but not quite enough for the books to fully adjust yet. As always, that leaves opportunity for prop bets.

For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Tim Hardaway Jr., Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+120)

Tim Hardaway Jr. is having the best shooting season of his career. He’s hoisting a career-high 7.6 3-point attempts per game and making 3.0 per game for the first time in his career — he’s one make away from 40% on the season.

Hardaway began the season as a starter through January, and he’s been coming off the bench since, but the change in status has left his shooting numbers virtually untouched. As a starter, THJ averaged 3.0 makes on 7.7 attempts behind the arc at 38.8%. Off the bench, those numbers are actually slightly better (3.0 per 7.5 on 40.4%), and he’s doing that while playing nearly five fewer minutes per game.

Suffice to say Hardaway is going to get his shots up. That’s his role on this team, and he’s gone over 2.5 3-pointers in 25 of his 44 games, hitting this over 57% of the time. And, since you’re wondering, he’s also gone over 2.5 3s in 13 of his 25 games off the bench, which would still top this over 52% of the time.

Hardaway’s minutes look to be down lately at first glance, with 23 or fewer in three of his past five games, but each of those games were blowouts. Tonight’s matchup with Boston should not be, and the Celtics have not been their usual selves defending the arc this year either.

Hardaway has a good chance to go over again. We project him at 2.9 made 3s, and I love this one at any positive number.

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Gary Trent Jr., Under 17.5 PTS + AST (-122)

The Toronto Raptors have wasted no time getting Gary Trent Jr. up to speed in the new offense. Trent played 31 minutes in his Raptors debut and nearly 38 minutes in just his third game with the team.

The Raptors are desperately searching for answers right now, and Trent hasn’t provided them just yet. He’s shooting 12-of-36 from the field in three games, attempted just two free throws total and didn’t record an assist in the first two games.

Remember, Trent has seen inflated numbers for much of this season in Portland as practically a second scoring option at times with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out. He’s in a much different role with the Raptors, a far more balanced team, and even as Trent’s shooting numbers regress to the mean, his production probably won’t match what it was in Portland.

We project Trent at 13.1 points, which makes the widely-available under 15.5 look pretty good, but I don’t mind fading the assists too since it boosts the line by two and he’s had fewer than two assists in 27 of his 44 games this season.

I’ll play the combo under to -140 and otherwise pivot to just under 15.5 points straight up.

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Moses Brown, Under 0.5 Assists (-144)

I don’t normally write about the same prop twice in a row, but folks, I think we may have found our new Brook Lopez.

Every other Moses in NBA history is a three-time MVP, so it’s only fair that we take note of a dude named Moses Brown when he shows up from the G-League and starts putting up monster numbers. Brown dropped 20 points and pulled down 16 rebounds against the Bulls a couple weeks ago, grabbed 18 boards against the Timberwolves and had a 21-point, 23-rebound game against the Celtics within the span of 11 days.

Brown has averaged 12.6 points and 13.6 rebounds over the past eight games, playing 29.8 minutes in a new increased role with Al Horford now watching from the sidelines for the rest of the season.

And do you know how many assists Brown has recorded over that span? Zero.

Not zero-point-something. That’s not a rounding error. It’s just zero. Zero assists in 209 minutes. He has one assist in his past 284 NBA minutes, and that’s about the same assist rate he had in the G-League the past two years. Brown is on the court to catch lobs and dunk, crash the boards, and mostly stay out of the way if he’s not doing one of those two things.

Brown has only four assists all season for the Thunder, and three of them came in late garbage time minutes. At this point, an under 0.5 assists bet looks good at just about any price, and at -144 and (59% implied odds), the books are just begging us to take it.

Happy to oblige and would do so at almost any number until Moses proves otherwise.

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