Uh oh, guess what day it is … Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike … guess what today is.
Plus Juice Dayyyy!!!
Fine; it doesn’t quite have the same ring as Hump Day, but it might be even more profitable. Plus, Juice Day is back at The Action Network! We’re grabbing three props at plus value — taking a little extra risk in hopes of a bonus payout.
It’s a Friday night in February! We’re all stuck home in pandemic watching basketball! Let’s have a little fun and see if we can hit a few props at plus odds.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Seth Curry Over 2.5 Assists (+103)
|Bulls vs. 76ers||+8|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Seth Curry got his season started with a flurry, racking up 17.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game over Philadelphia’s first eight games. He was absolutely blistering as a shooter too, hitting 60% of his 3-pointers and every single one of his free throws.
Then, Curry got hurt and missed almost three weeks in January, and it took him awhile to get back to form after his return. In his first eight games back from injury, Curry struggled. His numbers dropped to 7.4 points, 1.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in just 24.8 minutes per game, and even his 3-point shot wasn’t there, dropping below 30%.
Well, it appears Seth Curry is back.
Curry had his best game since the injury against the Rockets his last time out. We played a combo points + rebounds + assists prop in this column, and Curry hit the over before halftime.
Curry is now averaging 15.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists over his last six games, and he’s back to 33 minutes a game. He’s not quite back to that molten hot start, but it’s clear that this is the Curry we should expect when healthy.
Healthy Curry is averaging 3.3 assists per game and serves as a nice secondary playmaker in this offense. He can hit the open 3 but he can also punish the defense if it closes out too strong on him. In those 14 healthy full-load games, Curry has at least three assists in 10 of them, and he’s gone over this line in half.
There’s another angle. Ben Simmons is listed as probable, but he was a late scratch in Philly’s last game with an illness. There’s always the possibility that Simmons is a late scratch again, or that his minutes are reduced even if he does play, and Simmons is still the lead playmaker for this offense. Curry had five assists against the Rockets with Simmons sidelined, and he would see a lot more time on the ball if Simmons misses again or plays a reduced role.
Curry rewarded our trust in him a couple days ago, so let’s run it back and keep believing. I’ll play this over to -110.
Grayson Allen Under 11.5 Points (+102)
|Pistons vs. Grizzlies||+4.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | FS-SE|
Everyone’s favorite tripper has been balling lately. Grayson Allen is coming off his best five-game stretch of the season. He’s averaging 16.2 points per game over the last five outings, and his scoring is up largely because his minutes have been there. With the Grizzlies missing a bunch of wing options, Allen has started the last four games, and he’s played over 30 minutes per game during that stretch.
Grizzlies rookie Desmond Bane was the starting shooting guard prior to the last four games, and he is back tonight. Bane may or may not be back into the starting lineup right away, but he should immediately receive significant playing time again. Memphis badly needs Bane’s shooting, and he has produced immediately as a rookie.
Dillon Brooks is questionable for Memphis with a thigh injury. If he sits, I don’t like this play as much since Allen would likely get minutes out of necessity as much as anything else. But, Brooks is a tough son of a gun who almost never misses action. Additionally, DeAnthony Melton has been upgraded to questionable and has a chance to play tonight.
Allen has been balling lately because his playing time is up, but Bane, Brooks, and Melton all have a good chance to cut into that playing time tonight. During the timespan preceding the past five games, Allen was averaging just 8.3 points in 21.5 minutes per game. That’s almost exactly where we project him tonight, and he went under this line in 10 of 14 games, hitting the under 71% of the time.
There’s some risk baked in here, and that’s why we’re getting plus odds. If Brooks sits, then this is a 50-50 proposition at best, and Allen can always get hot and hit a few 3s. I’m playing the odds and expecting Allen’s minutes load to fall as Memphis’ better players get more time.
This is our top prop on the board tonight, with a 23% edge in our favor. I love it at plus odds with Brooks out, but I’d play down to -125 if needed.
Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 Assists (+112)
|Thunder vs. Bucks||+10.5 (-115)|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | FS-OK|
Welcome to the Dorture Chamber.
That’s the nickname Rachel Nichols and The Jump have given opponents who dare to attack Luguentz Dort. Dort was a relative unknown before breaking out as a rookie in last year’s playoffs. He’s incredibly strong, stout and was especially good defending against James Harden. He has quickly developed a reputation as one of the league’s best young perimeter defenders.
The Milwaukee Bucks have shockingly lost five straight games, but the Bucks are big favorites against the Thunder tonight, and Dort will surely have his hands full against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.
As impressive as Dort has been on defense, though, the offense is still a huge question mark. Who can forget Dort chucking open 3s while his more talented teammates watched in last year’s playoffs? The man is built to play defense, but the offense is not great. He’s a bit wild on the dribble, doesn’t show great vision as a passer, and the shot is still a work in progress.
In recent games, Dort flashed a little more playmaking ability, mostly because he had to. Oklahoma City has been shorthanded at guard the last few weeks with George Hill and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, along with rookie guard Theo Maledon most of the time. That led Dort to play 36.4 minutes per game in five games without Gilgeous-Alexander, and he had 13 assists in those games.
But with Gilgeous-Alexander and Horford back in action, expect Dort’s playing time to regress back near the 28 minutes per game he’s averaged the rest of the season. Dort has averaged 1.3 assists in games with Gilgeous-Alexander, and he’s gone under this line in 14 of 22 such games, hitting this prop 64% of the time.
Maybe Dort’s minutes climb due to the value he adds on defense, but he could also get into early foul trouble and just as easily see his minutes go the other way. We’re banking on reduced time on the court and much more of the guy we saw last year — shooting an open 3 but otherwise leaving his teammates to run the offense. I’ll play the plus juice down to even odds.