More than anything else, betting NBA player props is about finding opportunity. Injuries present opportunity. With one player out, there’s more points, rebounds and assists for everyone else. The right injury provides opportunity, and the wrong injury return takes it right back away.
That’s the angle we’re playing on all three props Tuesday, with two Philadelphia Sixers benefiting from Joel Embiid’s absence and an Atlanta Hawks player seeing his minutes fade now that his better teammates are getting healthy.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tobias Harris, Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-111)
|76ers vs. Nuggets||Nuggets -5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The 76ers are still missing Joel Embiid, and the team has obviously looked quite a bit different without him. Their defense and rebounding edge have held up, but the offense has fallen off a cliff. Philadelphia’s shooting percentages have plummeted, plus it’s getting to the line about half as often.
Ben Simmons hasn’t really stepped up his offensive production during this recent stretch minus Embiid. However, Tobias Harris has.
Over the last nine games without Embiid, Harris has transformed from third banana shooter into secondary creator. He’s barely even taking 3-pointers right now — just 2.7 per game — but his production is up across the board. Harris is averaging 22.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists in this span, looking like the All-Star he claims to be.
Those numbers are up from 20.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists the rest of the season. That’s an additional 2.6 points, 0.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game for Harris, and you can bet the Sixers will lean heavily on him to try to keep up with the explosive Denver offense.
Philly won’t be able to just slow things down and defend here. The Sixers are going to have to score, and Harris looks like he’ll need another big game to keep Philadelphia in this matchup.
The increased playmaking in particular has caught my eye. It has caught sports books’ attention as well, with his assist line rising some. However, I think there’s still value here. Harris has at least four assists in six consecutive games, plus he has at least six rebounds in all but one of these last nine games. That increased floor puts him in range of an over already, and we project Harris at 9.0 boards and 4.4 assists in this contest.
Harris has gone over 10.5 rebounds + assists in seven of his last nine games with his role increased, and Philadelphia needs him to do so again in a tough Nuggets game. I’ll play the over here to -135 odds.
Seth Curry, Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
|76ers vs. Nuggets||Nuggets -5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Second verse, same as the first. Embiid is a usage and touches monster, so his absence simply means more for everyone else. It’s like when you sit down around the family dinner table, but your dad isn’t home that night. That means everyone else gets to eat a little extra.
Seth Curry has been eating a little more lately. During the same nine-game stretch we just focused on with Harris, Curry is averaging 15.2 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists per contest. It’s not a huge increase, but his scoring is up a few points from 12.9 PPG on the season, and the rebounds have gone up.
Curry couldn’t get it going in Philadelphia’s last game against the Los Angeles Clippers, but he had gone over this combination of Points-Rebounds-Assists (PRA) line in seven consecutive affairs before that clunker. He averaged 21.3 PRA over that stretch — far above this line –and we project him at 19.2 here.
It’s very much the same case as Harris. No Embiid means more for everyone else, and Philly needs all the more it can get against the Nuggets if the Sixers want to keep up.
Both Sixers players have gone consistently over their respective totals lately, so I’m OK playing both together. If you only want to play one, in case this is a blowout and the minutes aren’t there for the starters, our Props Tool favors Tobias Harris. I’ll do both and play the Curry over up to -135 odds.
Tony Snell, Under 10.5 points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
|Hawks vs. Suns||Suns -6|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
It’s always a good day when you can bet against Tony Snell.
Snell is leading the NBA in 3-point shooting. No, there’s not another Tony Snell you didn’t know about. Yes, the same guy who washed out of Chicago three years after getting drafted in the first round. Yes, that player who shot 35% behind the arc with the Bulls before magically leaping to 42% since then.
And no, I’m not a perpetually bitter Bulls fan.
Snell is leading the NBA shooting from behind the arc, hitting an unreal 48 of 84 on his 3-point attempts for an absurd 57.1 percent. That’s not effective or true or any other fancy percentage. Tony Snell has made 57% of his threes through two-thirds of the NBA season, full stop.
And do you know how the Atlanta Hawks, a team desperate for spacing and shooting, have rewarded Snell for his historically unprecedented shooting? By playing him a whopping 20 minutes per game.
Snell is averaging 5.4 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest. He’s a walking “Who He Play For” game. And Snell has started more than half his games this season. In fact, he’s started every game since Feb. 23. Snell is all the way up to 7.1 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game since then in 26.7 minutes per game. Yay?
Snell has started most of those games because of De’Andre Hunter’s absence, but Nate McMillan said Monday that Hunter is 60 to 70% likely to play in this spot. And besides, Snell’s minutes have faded badly. He’s played 23 or fewer minutes in five of the last six games, even as a starter, and gone under this PRA line in all five of those contests.
Snell just isn’t a guy who puts up big numbers or grabs big reliable minutes. He’s the guy who fills in until you have better options. Atlanta has better options now that the Hawks are getting healthy, especially if Hunter plays. We project Snell at 8.0 PRA, and unless the NBA’s new leading marksman (?!) hits another few threes, I like our chances.
I’ll play the under here to -130, and even higher if Hunter is definitely playing.