NBA Odds & Picks for Heat vs. Warriors: Recent Trends Point to Value on the Over

Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors.

Heat vs. Warriors Odds

Heat Odds +1
Warriors Odds -1
Moneyline -100 / -120 
Over/Under 225.5
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds as of Wednesday and via PointsBet.

The Miami Heat are continuing their Western conference road trip in the Bay Area after a surprising loss to the Clippers on Monday who were without Kawhi and Paul George.

The Heat opened Wednesday’s game as a short road favorite but have since become a slight dog against the Golden State Warriors who are looking to secure their second consecutive victory after a 31 point win over the Cavaliers on Monday.

With such a tight spread in this game, I’ll break down why eyeing the total in this matchup.

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Miami Heat

The Heat will once again be without Goran Dragic as he deals with a sprained ankle and Gabe Vincent is listed as probable as they look to get back on track and into the playoff picture. Despite their 11-16 record, the Heat have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games and their advanced stats are starting to even out as they get their players back, namely, Jimmy Butler missed an extended period of time to start the season.

Miami has struggled on offense all season, and are ranked 25th in points per 100 possessions over the court of the season. However, their defense has kept them in games — they have the the 13th ranked defense for the season, but they rank sixth over the last two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass.

The problem with this is the teams they’ve played over the last two weeks. Aside from the Jazz, they played the Clippers without Kawhi and Paul George (and still lost), the Rockets, the Knicks (twice), and the Wizards (twice).

This falls in line with their expected allowed eFG%. It’s not that they’re allowing worse looks to opponents, their opponents just were unable to capitalize on those looks at a higher rate. The shot they give up at the second highest frequency in the league? All 3-pointers in general, but the corner three.


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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have listed Draymond Green on the injury report the past few games with a knee injury, so keep an eye on his status with our Labs Insiders tool. Green is a critical part of this Warriors’ team and with James Wiseman missing extended time due to a wrist injury, he’s played more minutes as a point-center.

Over the past eight games, he is averaging 6.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 11.6 assists! Considering Miami gives up 25.1 assists per game (19th in the league), Green should have plenty of opportunities to rack up dimes.

I’ve been playing his assist prop for the past few games after following my colleague (and resident prop guy), Brandon Anderson, and he even discussed Green’s passing before the Warriors’ game on Monday.

Passes from Green result in the Warriors’ highest shooting percentage, 54.4% from the floor and 43.3% from 3, per NBA Advanced Stats. His court vision will be critical in this matchup as the Warriors look to take advantage of Miami’s defense.

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Heat-Warriors Pick

The key to this matchup is the Warrior’s offense. Despite having just the 20th best Offensive Rating for the season, they’re ranked 10th over the past two weeks and scoring six more points per 100 possessions over this stretch.

While they played teams that are not great defensively (besides San Antonio), they’ve had the opportunity to get clicking on offense and keep that rhythm against what I think is an overrated Miami defense.

When the Heat have been listed as a favorite this season, they are just 9-8 straight up but just 5-11-1 against the spread. As a home dog, the Warriors are 4-4 straight up and ATS. Considering this is opening at a 1-point spread, while I lean Warriors, as I mentioned at the top, I am looking for value on the total.

Both of these teams have been profitable to back on the under. Miami is 15-12 to the under while the Warriors are 15-12-1 to the under. When two under teams play, it’s been profitable to bet the over.

That is the case here, and I expect to see some points in this matchup; Golden State plays at the second fastest pace in the league and I think this Miami defense is a bit overrated. I bet this at 223.5 when it opened, but the number has shot up across the market. Still, I like the over up to 226.

Pick: Over 225.5 (Up to 226)

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