Minnesota United vs. Seattle Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-135 / +110)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 2 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN | fuboTV|
|Odds updated Saturday night via DraftKings.|
The Seattle Sounders put their record-setting, unbeaten start to another test on Sunday when they visit one of the league’s hottest teams in Minnesota United.
Seattle now holds the mark for longest unbeaten start in MLS history at 13 games after a 2-0 win over the Houston Dynamo on July 7. A trip to Minnesota should be a stiffer test, since United has earned 10 points out of a possible 12 in its last four home matches.
The Loons did lose 2-0 at Colorado in their last match. Three days prior, Seattle visited the Rapids and earned a 1-1 draw.
The Loons Have Turned Their Season Around
Four straight losses to start the season put Minnesota’s chances at a third straight playoff appearance in immediate doubt.
The Loons may have quieted some of those already with a seven-match unbeaten run (prior to the Colorado defeat) that vaulted them back above the playoff line in the Western Conference.
There’s a catch, though. Only one of those seven results came against a team occupying one of the other six playoff places in the Western Conference, a 1-1 draw at Real Salt Lake.
To be fair to manager Adrian Heat-h’s squad, it has changed considerably from the group that lost 4-0 at Seattle to start the season, particularly in attack. Argentine Franco Fragapane and Frenchman Adrien Hunou have totaled four goals and three assists in 11 combined matches since they joined United later this spring.
Striker Ramon Abila is suspended, having been sent off against Colorado.
Who Can Stop the Sounders?
Sounders striker Raul Ruidiaz was left off Peru’s Copa America squad and has been playing like someone with a point to prove ever since. The 30-year-old has found the net in four of Seattle’s last five matches. Ruidiaz’s 10 goals put him even with the LA Galaxy’s Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez atop the MLS Golden Boot race standings entering the weekend.
Ruidiaz’s last goal came in a 2-0 home win over the Houston Dynamo that had the makings of a trap game.
The Sounders had just come off earning a 1-1 draw that marked Colorado’s only blemish in their last five home matches. They were playing a Dynamo team that entered the midweek clash with an extra day of rest.
Instead of letting their guard down, Seattle answered by keeping their sixth clean sheet of the season and becoming the first team to shut out Houston this season.
If there’s a reason for caution, it’s Seattle’s availability report, which includes 10 players who are out.
But none of those absences are new since the Dynamo win, including Cristian and Alex Roldan, who are respectively playing for the U.S. and El Salvador at the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Minnesota comes into the match as solid home favorites based on its strong recent form because of the Sounders’ reduced squad numbers and the major influence of home-field advantage in MLS games relative to other soccer leagues.
However, it looks like United’s poor performance against good teams didn’t come into play.
Minnesota may have recovered impressively following its awful start. But it still holds a dismal record of 0-4-1 (wins-losses-draws) against teams above it in the standings, entering Saturday.
Meanwhile, what makes the Sounders’ start so impressive is that seven of their matches so far have come against teams that currently sit above the playoff line.
While plenty of previous talented Seattle sides have been able to outscore opponents, this squad appears to possess the club’s best defense in its 13-year history. Their eight goals conceded is on pace to challenge the MLS record of defensive excellence.
Could Minnesota snap Seattle’s streak at home? Sure. But as favorites at +105 odds — which implies a 48.8% probability — you have to believe they’re more likely to do so than Seattle’s previous opponents. That’s very clearly not the case.
I’m taking a Sounders or draw double chance wager at -125 odds — an implied 55.6% probability — and I’d probably bet all the way to -165 or so.
Pick: Sounders or draw, double chance (-125)