Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Foltynewicz.
I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Corey Kluber — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
| Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees | Yankees -240 |
| Time | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
It has been a rough start to the season for not just Corey Kluber, but many of the Yankees players. Over the last week, however, things have started to turn around in the Bronx.
Kluber’s last outing gave a glimpse into the reason the Yankees signed the 35-year-old, two-time Cy Young Award winner. Kluber allowed just one run over 6 2/3 innings and struck out five for his best outing of the season.
I expect Kluber to build on that start with another strong outing on Sunday against a weak Detroit lineup. Kluber’s K/9 is down around 7.89 in 2021, despite being over 9.00 over the last seven seasons.
Against a Tigers team with the highest K% in the league (30.6%), I like Kluber to have another solid outing and last at least six innings, totaling over 5.5 strikeouts.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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Garrett Richards — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers | Boston -140 |
| Time | 2:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
In his first season with the Red Sox, Richards has just one quality start and has allowed 13 runs over 23 2/3 innings for a 4.94 ERA. His last start against the Mets was the only time he has lasted longer than five inning this year.
In that game against the Mets, Richards was able to rack up 10 strikeouts, but he hadn’t had more than four in his previous four starts. Even dating back to last season, he had at least six strikeouts just three times in his 10 starts.
Richards’ 8.37 K/9 this year is actually up from his 8.06 last season. He mostly pitches to contact, with a 43.8% ground ball rate.
Richards would need to last at least seven innings to hit this over, and he has gone that long just three times in the last three seasons. The Rangers have hit the ball better over the last week, and I like Richards to stay under this number.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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Mike Foltynewicz — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers | Boston -140 |
| Time | 2:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
I am fading both pitchers in the Red Sox vs. Rangers matchup.
Foltynewicz has not had a K/9 rate over nine in three seasons. His ERA is 4.61 and he has allowed at least three runs in three of his five starts this season. He has allowed a HardHit% of 47.6 and xBA over .257.
The Red Sox have absolutely crushed right-handed pitching this year to a .259 average, second best in the league, and they rarely strike out, ranking in the top 10 in K%.
At his current strikeout rate, Foltynewicz would need to pitch at least six complete innings – which he has done in just two of his five starts – and likely even into the seventh. I think this Red Sox lineup continues to hit righties well enough to knock him out of the game before that.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10