Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Giolito.
Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing for Saturday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Wil Crowe Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
| Pirates vs. Mets | Mets -170 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Buccos are playing some solid baseball right now. They have won six of their last nine games, including three out of five against these Mets.
26-year-old Wil Crowe has made just 15 career starts, and I certainly wouldn’t describe them as going all that well, with a 1-7 career record and 6.82 ERA, but 3.5 strikeouts is a very small number.
In his 12 starts this season, he has averaged four strikeouts per outing and has gone over this total in six of them. The Mets offense ranks 24th in batting average and 25th in wOBA this season, and they strike out the 10th most often in the league. This number is small enough that if Crowe can last five innings, he should clear it.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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Luis Castillo Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
| Reds vs. Brewers | Brewers -140 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
If you read these articles every week, you know what day it is. It’s fade Luis Castillo Day. As I’ve said, the former All-Star has turned into one of the worst pitchers in the baseball. Through 19 starts, he sits with a 3-10 record and 4.65 ERA. Teams are batting .254 against him this season.
After posting an 11.44 K/9 rate last season, his swing-and-miss rate has dropped to an 8.42 K/9 this season. His best strikeout pitch was always his changeup, registering a K% over 40%in each of the last four seasons. However, this season his changeup has just a 27 K%.
Castillo is averaging just 5.0 strikeouts per game this season and has stayed under 6.5 strikeouts in 14 of his 19 starts and his last four straight outings. I’ll fade him once again to stay under this total.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| White Sox vs. Astros | White Sox -120 |
| Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
It has been and up-and-down season for Lucas Giolito with plenty of bad outings for him. But when he is on, he can still be one of the game’s better pitchers.
His 7-6 record and 4.15 ERA are not impressive by any stretch, but he still has a 10.82 K/9 rate and sits in the top 20% of the league in strikeout rate. His changeup has been great once again, generating a 35.2 K%, which would be a career high.
Giolito has racked up 125 strikeouts this year, for a very nice average of 6.9 per game. He has gone over this total in 13 of his 18 starts.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
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