We have another stacked Major League Baseball schedule on deck Sunday, featuring 16 games on the loaded card.
Our analysts have targeted two games for their best bets, which commence with a matinee affair between the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks. Also part of the selections is the Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.
Baseball experts Kenny Ducey and Collin Whitchurch deliver their top picks below and explain where they see the value on their choices.
MLB Odds & Picks
|Click on a game to skip ahead|
|Cubs vs. Diamondbacks||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Red Sox vs. Yankees||7:08 p.m. ET|
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
|Pick||Under 9 (+100)|
|Pitchers||Zach Davies vs. Merrill Kelly|
|First Pitch||4:10 p.m. ET|
Kenny Ducey: At this point, we’re all aware of the Chicago Cubs’ struggles. This isn’t an offense worth backing on most occassions. And even with a couple wins to start the second half of the season, they’re still not hanging crooked numbers. So, why is this total so high?
Needless to say, it’s a weird one to figure out. Oddsmakers and sharp bettors alike have generally distrusted Zach Davies and his poor peripherals all season, yet with every solid start the sportsbooks have grown to respect him more and more with their pricing.
That’s why a total of nine runs here is the slightest bit odd, as is the fact that the Diamondbacks are hurting as well, with just 10 runs in their last five games.
We know Merrill Kelly isn’t the greatest pitcher in the world, but at the very least he rarely takes Arizona out of a game and has almost an average strikeout rate to go along with an above-average walk rate. What you see is what you get with Kelly. He will give up some hard-hit balls, but has the ability to go out and allow three or fewer runs.
At any rate, I will be hopping on what I see as an inflated total featuring slumping offenses and surprising pitchers at plus money.
Red Sox vs. Yankees
|Pick||Red Sox ML (+110)|
|Pitchers||Martín Pérez vs. Jameson Taillon|
|First Pitch||7:08 p.m. ET|
Collin Whitchurch: Sunday Night Baseball presents an interesting matchup of two struggling pitchers are set up for success.
Jameson Taillon has been abysmal on the road, with a 7.20 ERA, but has a 3.59 mark at Yankee Stadium. On the flip side, Martín Pérez has a sparkling 2.04 ERA away from Fenway Park, but has been beaten up to the tune of a 5.80 ERA at home.
With Taillon at home at Pérez on the road, I like the latter’s side in this spot, especially at plus money. The Yankees came away with the win Saturday in a weird, shortened game, but their roster is a mess after the post-All-Star break COVID-19 outbreak, so it’s hard to figure why they’re favorites once again.
It’s true Boston has cooled down since its hot start to the season, but the Red Sox are still an above-average offensive squad that should be able to tag Taillon. This game is essentially a coin flip, which is why I see value on the Red Sox on the moneyline at +110 odds. I would bet them down to +100 as well.