Tigers vs. White Sox Odds
|White Sox Odds||-225|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Wednesday morning and via BetMGM.|
The Detroit Tigers broke a five-game losing streak Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers touched up Lucas Giolito for four runs and came away with a 5-2 victory.
Future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera led the way for Detroit with two hits and one of the Tigers’ three home runs.
Cleary oddsmakers don’t feel it’s likely for the Tigers to get back-to-back wins, as the White Sox are currently listed around -225 odds to take the second game of the series.
After finally picking up his first Major League Baseball win on April 12 against Houston, Casey Mize has struggled in his last two starts. Mize allowed five runs in five innings to Oakland, then six runs in 4 2/3 inning against Kansas City. He allowed as many home runs (five) as he had strikeouts in those two games.
Mize has made an adjustment with his splitter, which has been his best pitch. Last season, his splitter was either generating strikeouts or getting crushed. He had a 29.4 K percentage, but a 50% Hard Hit percentage well. This season, he has just 5.9 K% with his splitter, but lowered his Hard Hit% to 31.3 overall.
It has been a rough year for the Tigers’ hitters. They sit last in MLB with just 3.08 runs per game, last in wOBA and tied for last in wRC+ in the categories.
Detroit has had a couple individual players off to solid starts, though. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario leads the team with 24 hits in 24 games; catcher Wilson Ramos has blasted six home runs; and, rookie outfield Akil Baddoo is incredibly fun to watch and has a .363 wOBA and 137 wRC+ overall.
Chicago White Sox
Carlos Rodon will make his fourth start of the season and he has been nothing short of phenomenal. Highlighted by his no-hitter on April 14 against Cleveland, Rodon has allowed just one run in three starts this year and has totaled 24 strikeouts.
It has been quite the comeback story for Rodon, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019. He became the first pitcher ever to throw a no-hitter within two years of having that specific surgery. The lefty has a 95 mph fastball, plus he throws a terrific slider for a 58.3 K% and zero hits allowed.
Chicago’s offense came into this season with a lot of hype and has looked the part so far. The franchise ranks third in batting average, fifth in wOBA and third in wRC+. The White Sox average 5.0 runs per game, which is fourth in baseball.
All fans knew about the star power Chicago has with Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert and 2020 MVP Jose Abreu. However, it has actually been rookie Yermin Mercedes stealing the show in the South Side. Mercedes leads all of a baseball with a .432 batting average and 32 hits in 20 games.
Tigers-White Sox Pick
I’m still not totally sold on Mize. He has looked good at times, doing a good job generating more ground balls, but his strikeout rate is way down and his fastball has gotten crushed. The White Sox have the second best K% in the league, plus they make a ton of hard contact all the way through their lineup.
Once they get past Mize, who has lasted more than five innings just once, the Tigers have the worst bullpen in baseball, with a 5.83 ERA for their relievers.
I am going to ride with Mercedes and the rest of this White Sox lineup to bounce back after the loss, playing its team total over 4.5 runs at plus money.
Pick: Chicago Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+100)