Mets vs. Phillies Odds
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via BetAmerica|
After a long wait, the New York Mets’ season will finally start on Monday night with a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets are, in my opinion, going to be the best team in the NL East this season, but the Phillies will not be far behind.
For Monday’s matchup, the Mets appropriately are heavily favored against the Phillies based on the starting pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom vs. Matt Moore. The Mets certainly should be -185 moneyline favorites (64.9% implied probability) as my model gives them a 65% chance of winning.
Instead of betting on a side for Monday’s game, I am targeting the total.
New York Mets
On Monday, bettors will finally have a chance to meet the Mets. This year’s Mets team features a loaded lineup that, according to my model, should produce 5.33 run on a typical night in a neutral ballpark against average pitching.
There are five players in the Mets’ lineup (Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto) who are projected to have a wRC+’s of 120 or greater. Against weak Phillies pitching on Monday night, I expect the Mets to do very well.
The only concern that I have with taking the over is that deGrom is on the mound. As a two-time NL Cy Young award winner, deGrom should not allow many runs against the Phillies. However, I only project him to pitch for six innings, and the Phillies should find a way to produce at least three runs even if some (or all) come against the New York bullpen.
The Phillies have a strong lineup. While they do not have as good of a lineup as New York, Philadelphia’s lineup produces 7.7% more runs per game than the typical MLB lineup. This is because other than the pitcher slot of the lineup, only one player — Adam Haseley — is below-average offensively. The most dangerous weapons in the Phillies lineup are first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfielder Bryce Harper. Even deGrom will have a tough time against those two offensive weapons.
The single best reason to bet the over for Monday’s game is because of the quality of Philadelphia’s pitching. Moore arguably should not have a job in MLB. In his last full season in 2018, Moore had a 3-8 record with a 6.79 ERA, and a 5.06 xFIP. According FanGraphs’ ZIPS projections, Moore should have an ERA of 5.82 this season.
In addition to Moore, the Phillies’ bullpen should give up plenty of runs as well, as my model projects them to have an xFIP of 4.69 this season. With a weak bullpen and starting pitcher for Philadelphia, New York should have little trouble crossing home plate.
We’ve determined that the over is the smart play, but at what price?
Games featuring pitchers of deGrom’s quality often have low totals, and bettors will bet those lines down when they see someone like deGrom’s name attached to it. That is why I believe with patience I can get a better price than the opening total of 8 runs. Betting on over 7.5 runs at -125 represents a bigger edge according to my model than over 8 runs at -115. Hopefully, I can get over 7.5 runs by game time at -110 or better. If not, I will aim to do an alt run total of over 7.5 runs up to -125.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs -110 (would play up to -125) or Over 8 Runs -115 (would play up to -115)