Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner.
There may be no football tonight, but there’s plenty of baseball, and plenty of opportunities to find value across the board.
Our analysts have found three games in particular they like today: Reds vs. Pirates, Padres vs. Giants and Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers.
Here are our three best bets from Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
| Click on a game to skip ahead | |
| Reds vs. Pirates | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| Padres vs. Giants | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers | 10:10 p.m. ET |
Reds vs. Pirates
| Pick | Pirates +140 |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Pitchers | Wade Miley vs. Dillon Peters |
| First Pitch | 6:35 p.m. ET |
Sean Zerillo: We’ll certainly be rooting for the Pirates to have some success down the stretch run. I bet their Win Total Over 57.5, so we need them to finish 6-13 or better to cash that ticket.
The Buccos will also play the wild-card hopeful Reds nine times in those final 19 games, so we’ll probably be backing them on the moneyline in a bunch of those contests, too, as they look to play spoiler and potentially gift the Padres (who play the Giants eight more times) a wild-card berth.
Wade Miley is having a tremendous season, but his ERA (2.89) is more than a run lower than his expected indicators (4.03 xERA, 4.00 xFIP, 4.44 SIERA) largely due to an 81.7% strand rate, which is roughly 10% higher than both league average (72.1%) and his career average (73.2%).
Dillon Peters has been relatively effective in a small sample for the Pirates (3.97 xERA, 4.84 xFIP, 4.80 SIERA) and projection systems think he can continue to pitch at that fringe/fifth starter level moving forward.
My model rates the Pirates as the slightly better defensive club, and it has these two bullpens on level terms for tonight’s matchup (4.35 Model Weighted ERA for Cincinnati, 4.41 for Pittsburgh).
Despite the apparent offensive advantages for the Reds, I still project the Pirates to win this matchup more than 45% of the time (+121 implied odds), and I would bet their moneyline for tonight at +133 or better.
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Padres vs. Giants
| Pick | Giants First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (-110) |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Jake Arrieta vs. Anthony DeSclafani |
| First Pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
DJ James: Jake Arrieta steps to the mound yet again for the San Diego Padres. This time he faces the best team in the MLB: the San Francisco Giants, who clinched a playoff berth on Monday night. Since they still battle for first place in the National League West, do not expect the Giants to bench too many of their players on Tuesday. They only hold a 2.5-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
With a minimum of 10 innings since the All-Star break, Jake Arrieta ranks sixth-to-last in the entire MLB in ERA at 9.74. With the Padres, he has thrown 8 1/3 innings and has allowed eight earned runs.
The Giants have six starters with a wRC+ over 100 against right-handers since August 1. Five of these hitters have an OPS over .800, and six hitters have an OBP over .330 in that same time period. Essentially, the Giants have six incredibly solid hitters to put forth against a right-handed pitcher. This is where the betting angle comes into play.
The first five inning total for the Giants is 2.5 runs. This could be eclipsed within the first inning but more than likely will happen in the second or third. Given Arrieta’s struggles for all of 2021 and how he has not righted the ship, it is the correct move to fade him yet again. Take the Giants o2.5 f5 (-110) and play to o3 (-110).
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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
| Pick | Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (-140) |
| Book | BetMGM |
| Pitchers | Luke Weaver vs. Tony Gonsolin |
| First Pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
Michael Arinze: The Los Angeles Dodgers have won four straight games, including seven out of their last 10. The problem is they can’t make up any ground on the Giants.
San Francisco’s won eight straight games and became the first team in MLB to clinch a playoff berth with a win on Monday. And although Los Angeles remains 2.5 games behind San Francisco, it hasn’t shown any signs of giving up.
In fact, the Dodgers have been much crisper of late over the last seven days in terms of their offense, starting pitching, and bullpen:
- Eighth in wRC+ at 104.
- First in starters ERA at 2.82.
- Second in bullpen ERA at 3.15.
On Tuesday, the Dodgers will face the Diamondbacks for the 15th time this season. It’s been a one-sided affair as Los Angeles holds a 12-2 edge. Los Angeles has actually outscored Arizona 102-37. Given those numbers, it’s worth taking a stab at the Dodgers’ team total.
They’ll look to tee off against Luke Weaver, who they have a .324/.400/.549 line against with a .225 ISO in 71 at-bats. In addition, the Dodgers have scored at least five runs in three straight games, including five of their last eight.
A deeper dive into Weaver’s numbers reveals that he’s really struggled on the road as he’s 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA and 6.48 FIP vs. 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 2.76 FIP at home. Opposing teams have scored at least five runs in each of his four away starts this season.
This total got bet up from 8.5 to 9.
I agree with the move, as my model projects a total of 9.13 runs in the game. That further supports my reasoning to play the Dodgers team total over 4.5 (-140) at BetMGM.
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