Gonzaga vs. USC Odds: Projected Spread, Total for NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Kispert (#24) and Drew Timme.

#1 Gonzaga vs. #6 USC Odds

Projected Spread Gonzaga -11.2
Projected Total 153.7
Projected ML Gonzaga -540
Time TBA
Projected odds based on our initial PRO Projections. Odds will be added once they’re released.
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How Gonzaga & USC Match Up

Gonzaga vs. USC
4 Tempo 236
1 eFG% 79
37 TO% 127
96 OR% 10
53 FTR 38
56 DeFG% 11
88 DTO% 263
24 DR% 149
44 DFTR 31
All stats via KenPom.


What To Know About Gonzaga

Gonzaga metrics are as dominant as any team in recent history.

Head coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs are the most efficient offense in the nation, per KenPom. They are first in effective field goal percentage (61.1%) and 2-point efficiency (64.4%). They are strong from beyond the arc, shooting 36.7% as a team. Player of the Year candidate Corey Kispert (19.5 PPG, 46.5% 3P) and guard Joel Ayayi (11.3 PPG, 36.9% 3P) are deadly shooters from deep. Per Shot Quality, the Bulldogs are one of the best-coached teams in the nation with top rank in points per play after a timeout. And they are an absolute terror in transition, led by superstar point guard Jalen Suggs.

The Bulldogs lead the nation in percentage of shots in transition and rank second in expected field goal percentage in transition shots, per Hoop Math. Oh, and I didn’t even mention potential player of the year candidate Drew Timme in the interior.

Gonzaga is a juggernaut and should be the top-rated team in any set of power ratings. Not only do the Bulldogs have the best offense in the country, the they also actually rank 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Unlike last season, there are no major concerns about the Gonzaga defense. There are really no holes on Mark Few’s squad which plays at warp speed (fourth in Adjusted Tempo) and can score in transition as efficiently and quickly as any team I’ve ever seen.

And don’t get caught up in their weak conference schedule as the Zags beat Kansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia all on neutral courts in the non-conference. It will take a special effort to take out the Zags this season. I’m not sure anybody can realistically take them out prior to the final four unless someone goes nuclear from 3 while Gonzaga has an off-shooting night. They are the real deal.

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What To Know About USC

Known for his Dunk City Florida Gulf Coast team in 2013, Andy Enfield has had a breakthrough at USC this season thanks to freshman Evan Mobley. Mobley entered the tournament scoring 16.1 points per game with 8.6 rebounds while blocking 2.9 shots and shooting 58.2% from the field.

The Trojans rank 16th in the nation, according to KenPom, and are 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Having finished in a virtual tie atop the Pac-12 in the regular season, USC will go as far as Mobley takes it in March Madness.

This team has elite size, which enables them to dominate on the offensive boards and in defense at the rim. However, their free throw shooting is very troublesome at 64.7% (327th). — Matt Trebby

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