Gonzaga vs. Baylor Odds: Spread, Total for NCAA Tournament National Championship Game

Trevor Brown Jr/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Suggs.

Baylor vs. Gonzaga Odds

Baylor Odds +4.5
Gonzaga Odds -4.5
Moneyline +170 / -200
Over/Under 160
Time Monday, 8 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet


How Gonzaga & Baylor Match Up

Gonzaga vs. Baylor
4 Tempo 179
1 eFG% 3
37 TO% 102
96 OR% 4
53 FTR 287
56 DeFG% 130
88 DTO% 3
24 DR% 280
44 DFTR 176
All stats via KenPom.


What To Know About Gonzaga

Gonzaga metrics are as dominant as any team in recent history.

Head coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs are the most efficient offense in the nation, per KenPom. They are first in effective field goal percentage (61.1%) and 2-point efficiency (64.4%). They are strong from beyond the arc, shooting 36.7% as a team.

Player of the Year candidate Corey Kispert (19.5 PPG, 46.5% 3P) and guard Joel Ayayi (11.3 PPG, 36.9% 3P) are deadly shooters from deep. Per Shot Quality, the Bulldogs are one of the best-coached teams in the nation with top rank in points per play after a timeout. And they are an absolute terror in transition, led by superstar point guard Jalen Suggs.

The Bulldogs lead the nation in percentage of shots in transition and rank second in expected field goal percentage in transition shots, per Hoop Math. Oh, and I didn’t even mention potnetial player of the year candidate Drew Timme in the interior.

Gonzaga is a juggernaut and should be the top-rated team in any set of power ratings. Not only do the Bulldogs have the best offense in the country, the they also actually rank 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Unlike last season, there are no major concerns about the Gonzaga defense. There are really no holes on Mark Few’s squad which plays at warp speed (4th in Adjusted Tempo) and can score in transition as efficiently and quickly as any team I’ve ever seen.

And don’t get caught up in their weak conference schedule as the Zags beat Kansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia all on neutral courts in the non-conference. It will take a special effort to take out the Zags this season. I’m not sure anybody can realistically take them out prior to the final four unless someone goes nuclear from 3-point range while Gonzaga has an off-shooting night. They are the real deal.

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What To Know About Baylor

For most of the season, most considered Baylor and Gonzaga as the two best teams in the country with almost no difference between them from a power ratings perspective. That changed entering the tournament as Baylor has dropped a few games, while Gonzaga has remained undefeated.

What happened to the Bears? Unfortunately, they had to deal with extreme COVID issues inside the program, which led to a long pause in activities. Since they’ve returned, the Bears just haven’t been the same team, especially on the defensive end. Baylor has just looked much slower on that end and has been much more vulnerable off the dribble and in transition.

The Bears have regained their pre-COVID form and now faces a Gonzaga team that they were destined to play. — Stuckey

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