Justin Setterfield/Getty Images. Pictured: Leicester City star Jamie Vardy.
With the international soccer break finally over, we can get back to the business at hand of finding live underdogs on the global soccer landscape.
Our crew finally got off the snide during the third week of action, with Matthew Trebby getting the job done with La Liga side Athletic Bilbao (+205) earning a 1-0 road victory over Celta Vigo.
With that win in the books, welcomed newcomer Brett Pund, along with regular analysts Jeremy Pond, BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo bring their favorite picks the table via with an interesting quartet of underdogs.
If you’re new to this preview, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the world. Whether it’s a match in the Bundesliga, Premier League, Serie A, Major League Soccer or even the Championship, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let’s take a look at their top selections on the global card.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester City vs. Manchester City | Leicester City | +450 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Stoke City vs. Huddersfield Town | Huddersfield | +400 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Levante vs. Rayo Vallecano | Rayo Vallecano | +260 | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich | RB Leipzig | +225 | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here
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Brett Pund: Leicester City ML (+450) vs. Manchester City
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
After I make my first underdog pick against Manchester City, I might not get invited back, but I feel like this could be a great spot to catch the reigning Premier League champion facing a strong Leicester City side.
I’m not in any way going to try to sell you on the Foxes being the better team, coming in on better form, having the managerial edge or really having any statistical reason on taking them over the Cityzens. I’m solely looking at the scheduling spot and roster news for both clubs heading into the match.
Manager Pep Guardiola will be without the Brazilian duo of Gabriel Jesus and Ederson, as well as backup American keeper Zack Steffen, which leaves 36-year-old Scott Carson starting in goal. You also have to think Kevin De Bruyne wouldn’t be rushed back with Champions League starting next week as well.
Does Manchester City still have plenty of quality in the squad to beat anyone? Obviously, they do, but do they deserve to be -165 favorites on the road facing a top-six side with UCL action on the horizon?
Manager Brendan Rodgers, veteran striker Jaime Vardy and the Foxes are worth taking a shot with in this spot, and at the very least we should see goals.
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Jeremy Pond: Huddersfield Town ML (+400) vs. Stoke City
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
And back we go to the English Championship, only this time we’re staying away from anything related to the Lilywhites of Preston North End.
Instead, we’re taking a swing on Huddersfield Town to pull off the road against Stoke City at bet365 Stadium. The Terriers (3-1-1) have won three on the bounce, with their most recent victory coming via their 4-0 rout of lowly Reading prior to the international break. Four different players scored in the victory, which has to have this group feeling confident entering this contest.
On the other side, the Potters had gone unbeaten through their first four games before suffering a brutal 3-0 shutout against top-of-the-table Fulham. That said, I’m banking Stoke City to carry some of that defeat into this affair against a relentless opponent in the midst of its best campaign since being relegated a few years back.
This really is a value play more than anything else. There’s no way Huddersfield Town should be 4-1 underdogs in this spot. The club was sitting at +450 on the moneyline earlier in the day, so we’re seeing some line adjustment inching closer to the match.
Back the Terriers to bag all three points and continue their stellar start.
BJ Cunningham: Rayo Vallecano ML (+260) vs. Levante
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
I’m going to be real with you for a second. This one is going to suck, but Levante shouldn’t be this big of a favorite in this La Liga affair.
The Frogs are likely going to be battling relegation again, because last season they averaged only 1.08 xG per match, while also allowing 1.45 xG per contest. Their defense allowed the fourth-most shot-creating actions, third-most touches in their own penalty area and fourth-most carries into the 18-yard area, per fbref.com.
So, I don’t believe this is a team that deserves to be a +110 favorite over a better-than-horrible side like Rayo Vallecano.
They mainly play out of a very defensive 4-4-2 formation, plus over the past two seasons they have a -8.19 xGDiff when using that setup.
Rayo Vallecano looked fantastic before the international break, trashing Granada in a 4-0 blowout, and out-created their foes by 2.41-0.78 xG difference. They were the second-best team in the Spanish second division last season, creating 1.60 xG per match, while only allowing 1.04 overall. So, this isn’t a club that’s not automatically headed for relegation.
I have Rayo Vallecano projected at +207, so I think there’s some value on the newly promoted side to pull off the upset at +260 odds.
Anthony Dabbundo: RB Leipzig ML (+225) vs. Bayern Munich
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
RB Leipzig won the xG battle with Bayern Munich in both games last season. The two teams finished very close in xG difference, plus the Red Bulls featured one of the best defensive records in all of Europe’s top five leagues.
The Bavarians might roll over them like they do most of their foes in the German top flight, but this is as good a spot as ever to bet against them with a home Champions League match against Barcelona looming in three days.
Leipzig’s underlying numbers are still excellent, though. The Red Bulls are first in penalty area passes, first in shots allowed and fourth in shots created so far this season.
The club also features the highest pressing success rate in the first division, which is a staple under manager Jesse Marsch. Leipzig has allowed the fewest opposition touches in their own final third as well, meaning that it will be difficult for Bayern to enjoy long periods of sustained pressure on goal.
Marsch has experience facing Bayern because of his time in the Champions League with Salzburg last year, and that team played nearly even with the game favorite on xG over the home and away legs. His style of pressing and direct attacking play can exploit weaknesses in the Bavarians’ defense.
My projection makes Bayern a +165 moneyline favorite, so I’ll take a shot on RB Leipzig to pull off the home upset.
