Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb.
Giants vs. Dodgers Odds
| Giants Odds | +135 |
| Dodgers Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
The San Francisco Giants suffered a crushing defeat against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night. San Francisco took a 6-5 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning, only for Tyler Rogers to walk the first two batters before Will Smith deposited a 419-foot shot into the left-field bleachers.
While the come-from-behind victory gave Los Angeles a 7-4 edge in the season series, a quick scan of the run differential would suggest the series has been even closer than you might think.
After all, if not for that three-run home run, both teams would have a total of 51 runs in the series. However, what’s interesting is that if you looked at how the games are being priced, you would think it’s the Dodgers that have been the first-place team.
That inherently creates a ton of value with the Giants, which is something bettors shouldn’t ignore for Wednesday’s matchup.
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Talented Webb Looking to Right San Francisco Ship
Logan Webb will get the start in the third meeting of this four-game series. The San Francisco right-hander has compiled a 4-3 record, with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Webb has been impressive, despite only being in his third season in the majors. Moreover, his 3.14 FIP, which is lower than his ERA, points to some positive regression on his part.
Although, what’s also pleasing are the improvements he’s had in his K/9 (9.64) and his BB/9 (2.89) ratios. I’ll be the first to attest there are few things that baseball nerds like more than the inverse relationship between an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in walks.
Yet, that’s not all. Webb’s 3.46 GB/FB ratio also compliments his 0.64 HR/9 ratios. It’s no wonder why the Giants are 8-3 in his outings this season and winners in his last five starts.
He’ll face a Dodgers lineup that has 46 at-bats against him with a .239/.327/.413 line. In May, he was pretty effective in a road start against them, allowing two runs (one earned) on a hit through five innings in an 11-6 victory.
Dodgers Sending Urías to Mound in Showdown
Opposing Webb will be Los Angeles left-hander Julio Urías, who’s already into his sixth season despite only being 24 years old. At 12-3, he’s having the best season of his career, posting a 3.78 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Even his 3.63 FIP is in line with his ERA as well.
There’s not much to dislike about his performance when you consider these advanced numbers — 9.80 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, and a 1.29 HR/9 — he’s racked up this season.
No one will disagree that Urías has been a quality pitcher, but while he’s 24-10 in his career, the Dodgers are only 5-6 in his starts against the Giants. In fact, Urías was hit hard the last time he faced them. He allowed 11 hits and seven runs (six earned) through five innings of work. Urías will be facing a San Francisco lineup that has a .316/.402/.461 line against him in 76 at-bats. That’s certainly a good enough sample size to craft a formative opinion.
If we dig a bit deeper, there’s even more supporting evidence as to why the Giants might not necessarily be the best matchup for Urías.
For one, he basically throws three pitches: A four-seam fastball (49.6%), curveball (32.7%) and change-up (17%). His curveball has been his best pitch, as FanGraphs values it at 11.9 runs above average. And while San Francisco isn’t necessarily elite against the pitch, the club has managed to hold its own with a value of 3.2 runs above average.
But where things will get interesting is when Urías utilizes his fastball. He throws it almost half the time with little effect as it’s 9.8 runs below average.
Conversely, the Giants are 27.6 runs above average against the fastball, which is good enough for third in the league.
Giants-Dodgers Pick
I don’t dispute for a second Los Angeles is a quality team, but also won’t sit idle and allow sportsbooks to take the mick out of me.
In my opening, I detailed that despite the Dodgers’ 7-4 series lead, this matchup has been much closer when you break it down in terms of run differential. With the Giants being offered as high as a +135 underdog at DraftKings, that’s too much value for me to pass up.
However, here’s something that really caught my eye.
Historically, when San Francisco has blown a lead after the eighth inning and allowed its opponent six or more runs on the road, it’s 6-1 for a profit of 6.5 units. When I add that element to my model projections, I can only look to play the road underdog in this spot.
Pick: Giants ML (+135)
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