Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Tyler Gibert.
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +155 |
| Mariners Odds | -190 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
After a narrow escape Friday, the Seattle Mariners saw their playoff hopes take yet another hit Saturday with a third loss in five games.
Seattle is very much still in the race, just two games back of the second wild-card spot, but with so many teams in striking distance of the last spot, every loss hurts at this point in the season.
With that, is the best play on the team with more to play for or does this matchup give Arizona a puncher’s chance? Let’s take a look at the numbers below and see what could be on deck.
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Arizona Had Been Struggling Mightily Prior to Win
Prior to shellacking the Mariners in a 7-3 beatdown on Saturday, the Diamondbacks had lost 11 of 12 games. While it appeared all hope was lost of even getting to 50 wins, the offense begun coming alive late in the week.
Arizona put up five runs in a loss to Texas and nearly beat Seattle in the opener on Friday in a 5-4 defeat. While on the whole the club owns the third-worst wRC+ in baseball over the last two weeks and hit .192 in the last week, we’ve seen a few nights that give you just the slightest glimmer of hope.
Over the last week, the Diamondbacks at least rank 15th in contact rate and have an above-average swinging strike rate. They’re walking 7.1% of the time and hardly making any quality contact in that span, but at least they’re getting the bat on the ball now.
On the hill we have the no-no kid in Tyler Gilbert. Since memorably firing a no-hitter in his first career start, Gilbert has been effective in the Arizona rotation and comes in off a solid start against these same Mariners. He went seven innings, allowing just three runs on four hits and two walks. Needles to say, he should come in brimming with confidence with solid numbers and peripherals.
Seattle Continues Desperate Chase for Wild Card
With two teams tied for the second wild-card spot and Oakland knotted up with Seattle two games behind those clubs, it’s anyone’s guess who will sneak into the postseason on the American League side.
In a tight race, every win is of the highest importance, and any game against a weak opponent is a gift at this point. The Mariners are going to need to handle their business against the Diamondbacks and need to take care of the Royals next weekend, because 10 of their remaining 20 games will come against the Red Sox and Athletics.
A major hold-up here will be seeing a left-hander on the hill. The Mariners are way down in 25th this year against southpaws with a 93 wRC+, and have struck out in an alarming 25.4% of those plate appearances. Just two days ago this team was stymied by Madison Bumgarner, which is never a good sign.
Speaking of lefties, the Mariners will start their All-Star southpaw in Yusei Kikuchi. The 30-year-old went from an unlucky pitcher in 2020 to a lucky one in 2021, pitching to a 3.37 xERA last year and posting a 5.15 xERA. The biggest difference would be in the quality contact department, where he’s given up more than 10% more hard-hit balls. Other than that, he’s been rather stagnant.
Those peripherals have turned Kikuchi’s season on its head, leading to a 6.04 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break. It’s not going well.
Diamondbacks-Mariners Pick
Say what you want about the Diamondbacks, but they grade out as an average offense against left-handers with a 98 wRC+, and peaked in the top three in that category earlier this season. They might not be making much quality contact, but Arizona should still be able to make a dent against Kikuchi, who has been downright terrible in the last two months.
With Gilbert on the hill in a great matchup with a lefty-averse team, I think the value here lies squarely with the underdog, even if it has 46 wins this year.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+155)
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