Champions League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Including Ajax, Liverpool & Manchester City (Sept. 28)

We have another busy card of Champions League games on tap Wednesday, with eight matches taking place across the European soccer landscape.

Soccer analysts Jeremy Pond, BJ Cunningham and Brett Pund have targeted three affairs on the stacked slate, including picks from the games featuring Ajax vs. Besiktas, Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester City and Porto vs. Liverpool to highlight the selections.

Let’s take a look at their favorite betting angles and see where they’ve found value in what should be another wild day in the competition.

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Champions League Best Bets

Ajax vs. Beşiktaş Odds

Jeremy Pond: This one could get ugly really fast.

Ajax, which might have the most prolific offense in the world right now, welcomes a banged-up Beşiktaş side to Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam for their Group C confrontation.

The Dutch giants have scored a stunning 35 goals in eight matches across all competitions, including 30 in seven Eredivisie fixtures. The defense has conceded just twice overall, including in their 5-1 win over Sporting Lisbon in their Champions League debut.

Ajax has an unreal amount of offensive balance as well, getting at least one goals from 13 different players. Ivory Coast international Sébastien Haller leads the juggernaut with a team-best five goals.

As for Beşiktaş, the Turkish standouts seem to have more players in the infirmary than they have available for this meeting. Cyle Larin, Necip Uysal, Mehmet Topal and Domagoj Vida are just four of 11 regulars who didn’t make the journey to the Netherlands. Needless to say, the visitors are up against it.

For those reasons, I’m backing Ajax at -2.25 on the Asian Handicap via DraftKings as my top selection. The Sons of the Gods have way too much firepower on their attack going up against the beyond-depleted Black Eagles. So, sit back and enjoy what should be a scoring clinic from Ajax on home soil.

Pond’s Pick: Ajax -2.25 (-110)

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PSG vs. Manchester City

BJ Cunningham: If we go back to their semifinal matchup last season, Paris Saint-Germain switched to a 4-4-2 formation in the first half of the opening leg to try to withstand the Manchester City attack.

And it actually worked for 45 minutes.

However, when you switch to that formation and leave Kylian Mbappé and Neymar on an island against one of the best defensive teams in the world, even they’re going to struggle as neither registered a shot in the first meeting.

The question mark surrounding PSG coming into this match is who’s actually healthy. At the time of writing this, Sergio Ramos, Angel Di Maria and Marco Verratti are out, while Lionel Messi, Layvin Kurzawa, and Juan Bernat are questionable.

Manchester City has looked unbeatable since their opening loss to Tottenham Hotspur, winning four of their last five in the Premier League. The Cityzens have a +12.00 xGDiff, only allowing their opponents to create 2.69 xG in total.

If last Saturday’s match against Chelsea and their first Champions League game against RB Leipzig are any indication of what lies ahead, Manchester City’s attack with standout Jack Grealish is scary good.

Through their first six EPL matches, the Cityzens are averaging 30.33 shot creating actions per outing; 46 touches in the opponents penalty area per game; and, 12.33 carries into the opponents’ penalty area per contest, per fbref.com. So, this will be a new challenge for PSG, who haven’t been tested in Ligue 1 outside of a confrontation with Lyon.

Also based on UEFA Coefficients, England is the most difficult league to play in Europe, while France is the sixth most difficult overall. So, everything points to the visitors notching another win over the host side.

Cunningham’s Pick: Manchester City — Draw No Bet (-140)

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Porto vs. Liverpool Odds

Brett Pund: Liverpool and Porto have been a common pairing that has been dominated by the Reds over the years, and I see that continuing in this fixture.

Since manager Jürgen Klopp took over Liverpool, the teams have met four times in the Champions League, with the English club winning three and outscoring the Portuguese team by a combined 11-1 margin in those games.

Looking beyond the previous meetings, this will be a big step up for Porto coming from its domestic league. The Portuguese side has draws against the hardest teams on their schedule so far in Sporting CP and Atlético Madrid.

Liverpool knows how to break down Porto, and it couldn’t be entering this match in any better form. The Reds lead the English top flight in expected goals (16.9); goals scored (15); shots per 90 minutes (23.33); and, shots on target per match (seven), according to FBref.com.

I think there’s a great chance the EPL power wins this game by multiple goals, but with a huge showdown with Manchester City coming up at the weekend, Klopp might rest some players in the second half after establishing the lead.

Play Liverpool to win on the moneyline here to take a commanding lead in Group B of the competition.

Pund’s Pick: Liverpool ML (-135)

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