Erwin Spek/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Ajax captain Dušan Tadić.
Ajax vs. Beşiktaş Odds
| Ajax Odds | -750 |
| Beşiktaş Odds | +1600 |
| Draw | +900 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-105/ -115) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Ajax looks to build off of their resounding 5-1 win over Sporting Lisbon when they host Turkish champions Beşiktaş.
Ajax is flying high at the moment, as they are currently on a six-match win streak in all competitions and look like a real threat to win Group C over Dortmund.
The Dutch champions’ mixture of experience and young talent is a dangerous combination in a tournament like this and their win over Beşiktaş would almost secure them a spot in the Round of 16 after only two matches.
Beşiktaş lost their opening match to Dortmund but pushed the German side almost to a draw. However, the Turkish champions are in a bad spot heading to Amsterdam on Tuesday, with an extremely long injury list, so it will take a heroic effort to hang with Ajax on their home turf.
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Ajax Offense in Top Form Entering Match
Ajax is ripping through everyone at the moment. They’ve won six straight matches in all competitions by a combined score of 29 to 1.
Their offense has been frightening for opposing defenses since the start of the season, averaging 2.86 xG per match, which is the highest average of anyone in the Champions League.
The Ajax defense has been much improved as well, as their opponents in the Eredivise have created nothing against them.
Ajax, xG against, Eredivisie 2021/22, first seven games.
0.34
0.67
0.66
0.36
0.43
0.47
0.24— Erik Elias (@erikelias_) September 26, 2021
Last season, Ajax had the best expected goal differential of anyone in their own domestic league. In the Dutch Eredivise, they averaged 2.60 expected goals per match, while only allowing 0.91 xG per match.
They have a good mixture of experience and young talent, Daley Blind, former Manchester United defender, Davy Klassen who has been there forever, and Dusan Tadic, former Southampton winger, give them a lot of experience.
Ajax also has one of the best young central midfielders in the world in Ryan Gravenberch and a whole lot more up-and-coming talent.
Even looking at FiveThirtyEight’s SPI rankings, Ajax is third in the world behind only Manchester City and Chelsea, so this is a team that should not be taken lightly as we get deeper into this tournament.
Ailing Beşiktaş Squad Suddenly on Mend
Beşiktaş dominated the Turkish Super Liga season ago, averaging 2.83 xG per match, while only allowing 1.12 xG per match. However, Beşiktaş is in an injury crisis at the moment.
At the time of writing this, starters Umut Meras, Ajdin Hasic, Mehmet Topal, Georges-Kevin N’Koudou, Necip Uysal, Domagoj Vida, Miralem Pjanic, Michy Batshuayi and Alex Teixeira are all expected to miss the match versus Ajax, so that leaves Beşiktaş in a horrific spot against a team with the attacking prowess of Ajax.
😨 Besiktas came to Ajax away with 11 MISSING due to injuries. #UCL
❌ Domagoj Vida
❌ Francisco Montero
❌ Welinton
❌ Necip Uysal
❌ Mehmet Topal
❌ Miralem Pjanic
❌ Atiba Hutchinson
❌ Alex Teixeira
❌ Rachid Ghezzal
❌ Kevin N'Koudou
❌ Cyle Larin pic.twitter.com/XkCHkULY6m— Ronald Morgan (@ronaldmorgan_) September 27, 2021
The odds have shifted accordingly, as Ajax opened as a -260 favorite and is now up to -750 at DraftKings (according to Sports Insights). So, it’s going to be a massive uphill climb for Beşiktaş on Tuesday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Obviously, the projections above do not take into account the injuries for Beşiktaş, so it’s difficult to project their effects.
However, I don’t know how Beşiktaş even hangs with Ajax, who look like one of the best teams in the world at the moment.
So, I’m going to back the Ajax to keep their foot on the gas all match long and take them to win both halves, which is currently available at +100 on DraftKings, as my top selection.
Pick: Ajax To Win Both Halves (+100)
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