Round 1 of the Valspar Championship is in the books with Keegan Bradley cruising to a first-round lead, shooting an outstanding 7-under 64. Bradley led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+4.0) and was second in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (+5.3) for his first round.
Looking ahead to Round 2, the stats show there is plenty of value to be had on one outright winner selection in particular.
Patrick Reed (+4000) (DraftKings)
Reed was someone who caught my eye as an outright bet prior to the tournament due to his excellent course history, finishing in the top seven in three of his past five starts at Copperhead. Although I refrained from pulling the trigger pre-tournament, his odds doubling after Round 1 makes this an easy decision for me.
Sitting at -1, Reed has plenty of golf left to get himself to the top of the leaderboard. With the winning score at Copperhead likely to stay in the -10 to -13 range, a low round tomorrow would get him right in the thick of it.
Reed’s statistics were also encouraging, ranking ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+2.3) and 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (+2.5). Inexplicably, the putter let him down today, losing 1.4 strokes, which was good for 125th in the field. Putting is the strongest part of Reed’s game, so I would be absolutely shocked if that didn’t improve tomorrow.
Patrick Reed -165 over Russell Henley
I also will be investing in Reed’s second round match-up over Russell Henley. Henley’s ball striking stats were quite the opposite of Reed’s in Round 1. He ranked 142nd in Strokes Gained: approach (-2.0) and 137th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green (-2.8). This should be a completely lopsided matchup that bettors should take advantage of going into Round 2.