Charlie Crowhurst/R&A/R&A via Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Finau.
Many of the biggest names in golf will trek several thousand miles after last week’s Open Championship to tee it up this week on the PGA TOUR. TPC Twin Cities, just north of Minneapolis, will host the 3M Open for just the third time.
That limited run, compared to decades of events at other TOUR stops, gives bettors a more limited view of the course and event.
Data is harder to parse for an event that debuted in 2019, yet there’s already a clear crop of players who have proven themselves ready and able to compete at TPC Twin Cities on an annual basis.
Tony Finau | +1400
Finau’s combination of length and accuracy has been well suited for TPC Twin Cities in his two trips to the event. In 2019, Finau finished in a tie for 23rd, while losing strokes with his putter. Last season, Finau improved and wound up with a T-3 finish, this time losing strokes around the greens. That week, he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, showing off his ball striking ability.
If he can continue to have success from tee to green with his driver and irons, Finau can put himself into position to win or finish near the top of the leaderboard with a stronger showing from his short game. Finau’s wedges were impressive last week across the pond, helping him finish in the top 15 at The Open Championship.
Matthew Wolff | +3000
In the two-year history of the 3M Open, Wolff has shot the lowest score to par in his eight rounds at the course at 35 under par. His triumphant 2019 win — his first on tour — signaled his rise into golf’s elite class.
In the two years since that victory, Wolff’s success has waxed and waned, culminating in a long sabbatical away from the game with two months off between November’s 2020 Masters and his next appearance in mid-January of 2021.
He has returned to playing regularly on TOUR, and is beginning to regain the form that led him to seven top-25 finishes in a 10-start run last season. Wolff is in the midst of his best ball-striking season as a pro, gaining +0.63 shots per round on approach shots according to DataGolf, more than doubling his previous high mark.
His trip to the Twin Cities could culminate with a return to the winner’s circle.
Emiliano Grillo | +3500
The world’s 67th-ranked golfer heads to Minnesota off a strong performance at Royal St. George’s. Grillo finished in a tie for 12th place, including carding one of the best rounds of the week with a second-round 64 at the event.
Grillo was a factor at the 3M Open in 2020, finishing three back of the lead in a tie for thirds, thanks to +2.11 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. Needless to say, Grillo’s accuracy and ball striking allow him to score at TPC Twin Cities.
Grillo has been one of the best iron players on TOUR this season. Per DataGolf, he ranks third on tour in True Strokes Gained: Approach over the last three months, which is the best of any player in this week’s field.
Keegan Bradley | +4000
The one-time PGA Championship winner has been dialed in with his irons of late. Per DataGolf, no player in this field has gained more strokes with approach shots in the last 30 days than Bradley. He hasn’t really capitalized on that success, missing the cut in two of the events he’s played in that time frame.
He made the cut in his only appearance at TPC Twin Cities two years ago, with his putter leading the way. He gained a full stroke on the field on the greens that week, while losing strokes to the field tee to green. His familiarity with the TPC Twin Cities’ putting surfaces will be a welcome sight for Bradley, whose putter has let him down in recent events.
Charles Howell III | +7500
Howell has clearly taken a liking to TPC Twin Cities. He finished T-23 in 2019 before improving to a top three finish in 2020. In his two starts in the 3M Open, Howell has leaned on his driving accuracy to put himself in position to make birdies. If he can hit greens in regulation, he’ll have chances to climb the leaderboard.
He enters this week’s event well rested, having not played in the Open Championship, one week after finishing T-23 at the John Deere Classic.